Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, February 2014

 

Composite leading indicators continue to point to an improving economic outlook in most advanced economies 


Download the entire news release (PDF 115 KB)

 

10/02/2014 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to show signs of an improving economic outlook in most advanced economies.

The CLIs continue to point to economic growth firming in the United States andthe United Kingdom and to growth above trend in Japan1. The CLI for Canada indicates a positive change in momentum.

In the Euro Area as a whole, and in France and Italy, the CLIs continue to indicate a positive change in momentum. In Germany, the CLI shows signs of firming growth.

In the emerging economies, the CLIs point to growth around trend in China, Brazil and Russia, and to growth below trend in India.

Growth firming in the OECD area

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Underlying data - Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators Database

 

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1. The CLI for Japan may not fully capture the expected impact of the hike in its consumption tax rate in April 2014, the first increase since 1997, which is likely to result in an uneven growth profile during the first three quarters of 2014.

 

 

 The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".

 

Watch also our short video explaining how
the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled
  

 

 

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Next publication date: 11 March 2014 (Joint release with the OECD Interim Economic Assessment) - see the release calendar

 
 

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Contacts
For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.

 
 

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Link to previous news releases

 
 

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More information on leading indicators at www.oecd.org/std/cli
 

 

 

 

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