Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, April 2014


Composite leading indicators point to weakening growth in most major emerging economies but continued positive growth prospects in OECD countries 

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08/04/2014 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to weakening growth in major emerging economies, with the exception of China, where the CLI points to growth remaining around trend. CLIs point to growth below trend in Brazil and India, and to growth losing momentum in Russia.

For the OECD as a whole, and for the United States and Canada, CLIs point to growth remaining around trend. CLIs point to growth returning to trend in Japan[1] and tentatively losing momentum while remaining above trend in the United Kingdom.

In the Euro Area as a whole, and in Italy, CLIs continue to indicate a positive change in momentum. In Germany, the CLI points to growth above trend, and for France the CLI points to stable growth momentum.


Growth around trend in the OECD area

Underlying data - Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators Database


1. The CLI for Japan may not fully capture the expected impact of the hike in its consumption tax rate in April 2014, the first increase since 1997, which is likely to result in an uneven growth profile during the first three quarters of 2014.



 The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".


Watch also our short video explaining how
the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled




Next publication date: 13 May 2014 (Joint release with the OECD Interim Economic Assessment) - see the release calendar



For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.



Link to previous news releases



More information on leading indicators at www.oecd.org/std/cli


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