Leading indicators and tendency surveys

United States - CLI Component Series & Turning Points

 

Component Series (Unit)

Source

Dwellings started (number)

Bureau of the Census

Net new orders for durable goods

(us dollar - million)

Bureau of the Census

Share prices: NYSE composite (2005=100)

Bureau of the Census

Consumer sentiment indicator (normal = 100)

University of Michigan

Weekly hours of work : manufacturing (hours)

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Purchasing managers index (BS) (% balance)

Institute of Supply Management

Spread of interest rates (% per annum)

Federal Reserve

 

Reference chronology of turning points

Trough 1949M10, Peak 1951M8, Trough 1954M5, Peak 1955M9, Trough 1958M4, Peak 1959M6, Trough 1961M2, Peak 1962M4, Trough 1963M2, Peak 1966M3, Trough 1967M9, Peak 1969M3, Trough 1970M11, Peak 1973M5, Trough 1975M4, Peak 1978M11, Trough 1982M11, Peak 1985M10, Trough 1987M3, Peak 1990M2, Trough 1991M9, Peak 1994M9, Trough 1995M12, Peak 2000M6, Trough 2003M2, Peak 2007M11, Trough 2009M5

 

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