Component Series (Unit)

Source

Business climate indicator (% balance)

Confederation of British Industry

New car registrations sa (number)

Department of Transport

Consumer confidence indicator sa (% balance)

European Commission

3-month eligible bank bills (% p.a.) inverted

Bank mof England

Production: future tendency (% balance)

Confederation of British Industry

Finished goods stocks: tendency (% balance) Inverted

Confederation of British Industry

FTSE-A non financial share price index (2000y)

Bank of England

Reference chronology of turning points

Peak 1955M9, Trough 1958M8, Peak 1960M2, Trough 1962M12, Peak 1964M9, Trough 1966M12, Peak 1968M9, Trough 1971M3, Peak 1973M5, Trough 1975M8, Peak 1979M6, Trough 1981M4, Peak 1983M12, Trough 1985M11, Peak 1988M11, Trough 1992M7, Peak 1994M10, Trough 1996M11, Peak 2000M4, Trough 2002M12, Peak 2004M1, Trough 2005M2, Peak 2007M12, Trough 2009M5