• to present national experience in the field of cyclical analysis.

• to discuss statistical/methodological issues with regard to construction of national CLIs.

Selected country presentations:

Composite Leading Indicators: The Brazilian Experience

Salomao L. Quadros da Silva, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Brazil

Measuring Business Cycles in China: A Brief Review

Yongjun Zhang, State Information Center of China

China's Experiences in Constructing and Applying Composite Leading Indicators

Shi Faqi, National Bureau of Statistics, China

Business Cycle Analysis of Economic Indicators

Shri A. B. Chakraborty, Reserve Bank of India

Development of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) in Indonesia

Slamet Sutomo, BPS – Statistics Indonesia

A Brief history of business Cycle Analysis in South Africa

JC Venter, South African Reserve Bank

Session 2:  Work on Leading Indicators by the OECD

Aims

• To give brief background information on key issues for discussion in the following sessions, and to present recent development work by the OECD.

OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) Methodology

Ronny Nilsson, OECD

Application of OECD Methodology to OECD Non-Member Economies

Presentation of OECD background paper: Composite Leading Indicators for Major Non-Member Economies – selection of Leading Indicators and Construction of Composite Indicators

Ronny Nilsson, OECD

Discussion session:

• What cycle to monitor? (business cycle, growth cycle growth rate cycle)

• What reference indicator? (single reference series like GDP or industrial production or composite coincident indicator)

Session 3:  Potential Leading Indicators as Components for Construction of Country Specific CLIs

Aim

to discuss the initial OECD selection of leading indicators for Non-Member countries:

• indicators available at the OECD

• indicators not available at the OECD  

• to present and discuss country suggestions for alternative and/or additional potential leading indicators, data and metadata availability, time period covered by indicators, frequency and timelines of data and suggestions for efficient modes of data collection or transmissions

• to agree on a set of leading indicators for each country

Selected country presentations:

Selection of Variables to form An Index of  Leading Indicators for the Brazilian Economy

Salomao L. Quadros da Silva, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Brazil

List of Potential Leading Indicators for China

Shi Faqi, National Bureau of Statistics, China

Data Availability for the Construction of a composite Leading Business Cycle  Indicator for South Africa

JC Venter, South African Reserve Bank

Tuesday, 25 April

Session 3:  Potential Leading Indicators as Components for Construction of Country Specific CLIs  (cont.)

Summary of the first day and main conclusions reached

OECD Selection of Potential Leading Indicators:
Cyclical Characteristics and Problems with Specific Indicators

Ronny Nilsson, OECD

Discussion session on:

• Alternative and/or additional potential leading indicators

Data and Metadata Collection from Non-Member Countries by the OECD

Ronny Nilsson, OECD

Discussion session on:

• data and metadata availability, frequency, timeliness etc.

• efficient modes of data collection

Session 4:  Meeting conclusions and future work

Aims:

• To discuss conclusions from Sessions 1-3 above and decide on possible future activities for the OECD in cooperation with national agencies.

Brief overview of main conclusions,  recommendations and agreements from Sessions 1-3

Identification of specific future activities/projects, such as those involving:

• to discuss and propose a modality to continue monitoring the quality of the selected leading indicators (and to adjust as required)

• future meeting