Leading indicators and tendency surveys

OECD Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series

 

 

The following pages give: (1) the chronology of turning points in the reference series for regional/zone area aggregates and individual countries and (2) the list of components series for each individual country CLI.

 

The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. Up to April 2012 the main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries was industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. From April 2012 onward the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used as the reference for identification of turning points in the growth cycle.

 

Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series.

Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turing point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) 


The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behaviour; data quality; timeliness and availability.

 

OECD Total Area
OECD + Non-member economies
Major seven countries
OECD Europe
Euro Area
Four Big European Countries
NAFTA Area
Major 5 Asia

Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan

Korea 
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States

Non-member economies
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Russian Federation
South Africa

   

The OECD-Total covers the following 33 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.


The OECD + Non-member economies covers the following 39 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel(1), Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States.


The Major Seven countries are: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States.

 

The OECD Europe countries are: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom.


The Euro area - EMU (European Monetary Union)
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus(2), Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Spain


The Four Big European Countries are: France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom.


The NAFTA area covers the following 3 countries: Canada, Mexico, and United States.


The Major 5 Asia countries are: China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

 


 1.

Information on data for Israel: http://oe.cd/israel-disclaimer

 2.

Footnote by Turkey: "The information in this document with reference to " Cyprus " relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the 'Cyprus issue'".

 

Footnote by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Commission: "The Republic of Cyprus is recognized by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Countries list

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  • Albania
  • Algeria
  • American Samoa
  • Andorra
  • Angola
  • Anguilla
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Argentina
  • Armenia
  • Aruba
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Azerbaijan
  • Bahamas
  • Bahrain
  • Bangladesh
  • Barbados
  • Belarus
  • Belgium
  • Belize
  • Benin
  • Bermuda
  • Bhutan
  • Bolivia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Botswana
  • Bouvet Island
  • Brazil
  • British Indian Ocean Territory
  • Brunei Darussalam
  • Bulgaria
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cambodia
  • Cameroon
  • Canada
  • Cape Verde
  • Cayman Islands
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Chile
  • China (People’s Republic of)
  • Chinese Taipei
  • Christmas Island
  • Cocos (Keeling) Islands
  • Colombia
  • Comoros
  • Congo
  • Cook Islands
  • Costa Rica
  • Croatia
  • Cuba
  • Cyprus
  • Czech Republic
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Democratic People's Republic of Korea
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Denmark
  • Djibouti
  • Dominica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • Egypt
  • El Salvador
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Estonia
  • Ethiopia
  • European Union
  • Faeroe Islands
  • Fiji
  • Finland
  • Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM)
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  • French Guiana
  • French Polynesia
  • French Southern Territories
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Georgia
  • Germany
  • Ghana
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