Component Series (Unit)

Source

Ifo business climate indicator (% balance)

Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Orders inflow/demand: tendency (manufact.)

(% balance)

Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Export order books : level (manufacturing)

(% balance)

Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Total new orders (manufacturing) (2000 = 100)

Federal Statistical Office

Finished goods stocks: level (manufacturing)

(% balance) inverted

Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Spread of interest rates (% per annum)

European Central Bank

Reference chronology of turning points

Peak 1960M11, Trough 1963M2, Peak 1966M2, Trough 1967M5, Peak 1970M8, Trough 1972M2, Peak 1973M4, Trough 1975M6, Peak 1979M11, Trough 1982M10, Peak 1985M9, Trough 1987M4, Peak 1991M3, Trough 1993M9, Peak 1995M5, Trough 1996M2, Peak 1998M1, Trough 1999M1, Peak 2001M4, Trough 2005M2, Peak 2008M3, Trough 2009M5, Peak 2011M7