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OECD composite leading indicators show signs of possible peak in expansion

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13/09/10 - OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for July 2010 point to clearer signs of a moderation in the pace of expansion compared to last month’s assessment. The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.1 point in July 2010.
In Canada, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, China and India there are stronger signals of a slower pace of economic growth in coming months than was anticipated in last month’s release. Stronger signals that the expansion may lose momentum have emerged in Japan, the United States and Brazil. Tentative signals have also emerged that the expansion phases of Germany and Russia may soon peak.

The OECD Development Centre’s Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) show that the recovery of ASEAN economies keeps on track with some signs of moderation. (Read more).

• Link to historical data, graphs and methodological information Link to historical data, graphs and methodological information
• FAQs     
• Glossary of Composite Leading Indicators
• OECD Business Cycle Analisys Database

In July 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 3 countries (China, India, Indonesia). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised. Download further details on the change (PDF).

The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".

For a better interpretation of OECD CLI consult the following document: Interpreting OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).

The next publication of the OECD's CLI will be on 11 October 2010. 

Contacts
For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.

Related Documents

OECD Main Economic Indicators (MEI)