Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Canada - Component Series & Turning Points

 

Component Series (Unit)

Source

Deflated money supply (m1) sa (2005 cad)

Statistics Canada

Housing starts large cities sa (number)

Statistics Canada

USA business climate indicator (pmi) sa

(normal=50)

Institute of Supply Management USA

Consumer confidence sa (2005=100)

Conference Board Canada

Spread of interest rates (% a.r.)

Statistics Canada

Ratio of inventories to shipments (ratio) inverted

Statistics Canada

Share prices (s&p/tsx composite index) (2005=100)

Statistics Canada

   

Reference chronology of turning points

Trough 1961M3, Peak 1962M2, Trough 1963M6, Peak 1966M4, Trough 1968M1, Peak 1968M12, Trough 1971M2, Peak 1974M1, Trough 1975M5, Peak 1976M6, Trough 1977M7, Peak 1979M11, Trough 1982M11, Peak 1985M11, Trough 1986M11, Peak 1989M4, Trough 1992M7, Peak 1994M12, Trough 1996M6, Peak 2000M7, Trough 2001M10, Peak 2002M9, Trough 2005M2, Peak 2007M10, Trough 2009M6

 

 

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