DBNotes Countries - Apr04

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATABASE NOTES
APRIL 2004

AVAILABLE ON DISK FROM 09-04-2004
(STA05)DBNotes/Apr

EXPANSION OF DATA FOR BUSINESS TENDENCY AND CONSUMER OPINION SURVEYS

 

The OECD has significantly expanded the range of data series it provides on business tendency and consumer opinion surveys in the Main Economic Indicators (MEI) database, in particular for the Construction, Retail Trade and Services industries. This is in response to the increasing use of these data for monitoring and forecasting business cycles, and in econometric models to predict key macro economic variables (e.g. GDP, Industrial Production). An important aspect of these data is their timeliness, with data for the most recent month being made available in all MEI online and CD-ROM products e.g. February 2004 data is available with the March 2004 release (except consumer opinion series for Australia, Canada and New Zealand which will be published with a 1 month lag).

The OECD developed a core set of ‘target indicators’ for business tendency and consumer opinion surveys within each sector and then sought to obtain these series for each of the OECD Member and big 6 Non-Member countries. These target indicators are shown in the table below, although coverage of these series varies slightly amongst countries depending on the availability of data. Series for the Construction, Retail Trade and Services industries are now available in MEI products for all European Union and Candidate countries, United States (total non-manufacturing only), Japan, Korea, Switzerland, China, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. The exact list of new series available from March 2004 for each country and their series codes can be accessed in the attached Excel spreadsheet. This file also contains series which OECD has stopped publishing from March 2004 (indicated by an ‘S’ in the third column of the EXCEL file) or has recoded/replaced (indicated by an ‘R’).

Where available from data suppliers, OECD aims to provide both seasonally adjusted and raw series for these data. Where countries do not supply seasonally adjusted series, OECD is in the process of establishing (i.e. the work is not yet complete and additional series will be created in the coming months) seasonally adjusted series using X-12 Reg-ARIMA, provided the series exhibit seasonality. Series on Consumer Opinions, Construction, Retail Trade and Services industries for European Union and Candidate Countries are supplied by the European Commission and are only available in seasonally adjusted form (using the DAINTIES method of seasonal adjustment).

For further information on the inclusion of these new series, please contact Ronny Nilsson at ronny.nilsson@oecd.org.


Target list of series for Business and Consumer Opinions:

Manufacturing industry
   Manufacturing confidence indicator
   Business situation: present
   Business situation: future
   Production: tendency
   Production: future tendency
   Orders inflow or demand: tendency
   Order books: level
   Export order books: level
   Finished goods stocks: level
   Raw material stocks: present situation
   Rate of capacity utilisation
   Employment: future tendency
   Selling prices: future tendency

Construction
   Construction confidence indicator
   Business (activity) situation: present
   Business (activity) situation: future
   Demand/Orders inflow: future tendency
   Order books: level
   Employment: future tendency
   Selling prices: future tendency

Retail Trade
   Retail confidence indicator
   Business (activity) situation: present
   Business (activity) situation: future
   Volume of stocks: level
   Employment: future tendency
   Order intentions or demand

Other Services
   Service confidence indicator
   Business (activity) situation: present
   Business (activity) situation: future
   Demand evolution: tendency
   Demand evolution: future tendency
   Employment: tendency
   Employment: future tendency

Consumer opinions
   Consumer confidence indicator
   Expected inflation
   Expected economic situation

 

REVISIONS TO MEI SERIES DUE TO A CHANGE IN LINKING METHODOLOGY

The OECD has commenced a program to implement an improved methodology for linking different versions of historical time series used to create long time series in the MEI database. The main impacts of this change in methodology is to ensure that raw and seasonally adjusted versions of the same time series are completely consistent over time, and that measures of annual growth rates over the entire time series are as robust as possible.

Further information on the linking methodology used in the MEI database is available.

As a result, several time series have been revised in the March 2004 release of the MEI database. The series affected are listed in the attached Excel spreadsheet.

 

SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS


New seasonal adjustments by OECD are generally carried out once a year, when the December figure is available. Revisions to individual series due to new seasonal adjustments by national source or by OECD are not signalled in this note.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS


Detailed methodological information, updated with a delay of one month, is available on this CD-ROM in \doc\MetaCtr.htm or at http://www.oecd.org/std/mei.
Questions relating to these database notes should be directed by e-mail to stat.contact@oecd.org.

Countries List

                             CANADA    MEXICO    UNITED STATES    AUSTRALIA    KOREA    NEW ZEALAND    AUSTRIA
                             CZECH REPUBLIC    DENMARK    FINLAND    FRANCE    GERMANY    GREECE    ICELAND 
                             IRELAND    ITALY    NETHERLANDS    NORWAY    POLAND    SWEDEN    UNITED KINGDOM
                             EURO AREA    BRAZIL     


CANADA

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Manufacturing
 Estimates of shipments, inventories and orders have been revised back to January 1999. Although the historical month-to-month movements were preserved, there were adjustments made to the levels of the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM). These adjustments were due to several factors: the use of new and revised data; updates to the industrial classification (NAICS); the updating of the seasonal adjustment factors; and most significantly, the benchmarking of the MSM to the 2000 and 2001 Annual Survey of Manufactures levels.
   DEL MANUFACTURING TOTALCAN.MNDLVA01.NCML
   DEL MANUFACTURING TOTAL SACAN.MNDLVA01.NCMLSA
   DEL MANUFACTURING DURABLESCAN.MNDLVA02.NCML
   DEL MANUFACTURING DURABLES SACAN.MNDLVA02.NCMLSA
   ORD MANUFACTURING TOTALCAN.MNNOVA01.NCML
   ORD MANUFACTURING TOTAL SACAN.MNNOVA01.NCMLSA
   STOCKS MFG TOTALCAN.MNSTVA01.ST
   STOCKS MFG TOTAL SACAN.MNSTVA01.STSA
   STOCKS FINISHED GOODS SACAN.MNSTVA10.STSA
   STOCKS WORK IN PROGRESS SACAN.MNSTVA11.STSA
   STOCKS MATERIALS SACAN.MNSTVA12.STSA



MEXICO

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Production
 The following series have been revised by source. Every year there are revision for 3 years ago, this time it was found that in 2001 the electricity federal commission bought energy to independent producers:
   IIP CONSTRUCTIONMEX.PRPECN01.IXOB
   IIP MININGMEX.PRPEMI01.IXOB
   IIP MINING SAMEX.PRPEMI01.IXOBSA
   IIP Electricity, gas and waterMEX.PRPEUT01.IXOB
   IIP Electricity, gas and water saMEX.PRPEUT01.IXOBSA
Other prices
 New national base year (December 2003=100) for the following series:
   Cost of construction: social housingMEX.OPCNSH01.IXOB




UNITED STATES

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Domestic Demand
 The following series have been revised by source in February 2004 following a benchmarking based on the results of the 2001 Census of Population and Housing. Consequently, historical data have been recalculated by source from January 1999 to January 2004.
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VALUEUSA.DDRSVA01.NCML
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VALUE SAUSA.DDRSVA01.NCMLSA
Producer Prices
 Starting January 2004 the following series are compiled using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
   PPI Manufacturing IndustriesUSA.PPIAMP01.IXOB
   PPI CRUDE GOODS (RAW MATERIALS)USA.PPIPRM01.IXOB
   PPI PETROLEUM PRODUCTSUSA.PPOGRP01.IXOB
   PPI FINISHED GOODSUSA.PPTGFG01.IXOB
   PPI INTERMEDIATE GOODSUSA.PPTGIG01.IXOB
External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   LIAB TO FOREIGNERS OFF INSTITUSA.XFNPTT01.ST




AUSTRALIA

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Employment
 The following series has been included:
   Civilian EmploymentAUS.EMESTT02.ST
 The following series have been revised by source in February 2004 following a benchmarking based on the results of the 2001 Census of Population and Housing. Consequently, historical data have been recalculated by source from January 1999 to January 2004.
   Employment : manufacturingAUS.EMESIN03.ST
   Civilian employment (LFS)AUS.EMESTT02.IXOB
Unemployment
 The following series have been revised by source in February 2004 following a benchmarking based on the results of the 2001 Census of Population and Housing. Consequently, historical data have been recalculated by source from January 1999 to January 2004.
   UNEMPLOYMENT TOTALAUS.UNLVSU01.ST
   UNEMPLOYMENT TOTAL SAAUS.UNLVSU01.STSA
   LONG-TERM UNEM % TOTAL UNEMAUS.UNOTLT01.ST
   STANDARDISED UNEMP RATE SAAUS.UNRTSD01.STSA
   Unemp % civ. labour force (LFS)AUS.UNRTSU01.ST
   Unemp % civ. labour force (LFS) saAUS.UNRTSU01.STSA



KOREA

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National Accounts
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   Exports of goods and services KOR.CMPEXP.VIXOBSA
   Government final consumption expenditure KOR.CMPGC.VIXOBSA
   Gross domestic product KOR.CMPGDP.VIXOBSA
   Gross fixed capital formation KOR.CMPGF.VIXOBSA
   Imports of goods and services KOR.CMPIMP.VIXOBSA
   Private final consumption expenditure KOR.CMPPC.VIXOBSA
   Exports of goods and services KOR.EXPEXP.VNBQRSA
   Government final consumption expenditure KOR.EXPGC.VNBQRSA
   Gross domestic product KOR.EXPGDP.CQRSA
   Gross domestic product KOR.EXPGDP.DNBSA
   Gross domestic product KOR.EXPGDP.VNBQRSA
   Gross fixed capital formation KOR.EXPGF.VNBQRSA
   Imports of goods and services KOR.EXPIMP.VNBQRSA
   Private final consumption expenditure KOR.EXPPC.VNBQRSA
   Statistical discrepancy (gdp by exp) KOR.EXPSD.VNBQRSA
   Change in stocks KOR.EXPST.VNBQRSA
Consumer opinion surveys
 The following series has been included (replacing KOR.CSCICP01.STSA):
   Consumer - Confidence indicatorKOR.CSCICP01.IXNB


NEW ZEALAND

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External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET FOREIGN POSITION TRAD BANKSNZL.XFNPTT01.ST


AUSTRIA

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External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET FOREIGN POSITION COMM BANKSAUT.XFNPTB01.ST


CZECH REPUBLIC

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Employment
 The following series has been included:
   Employees IndustryCZE.EMDPIN01.ST



DENMARK

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Other prices
 New national base year (2003=100) for the following series which is now available only on quarterly basis:
   Cost of construction: multiple dwellingsDNK.OPCNRE01.IXOB
External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET FOREIGN POSITION COMM BANKSDNK.XFNPTB01.ST


FINLAND

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Employment
 The following series has been included:
   Civilian EmploymentFIN.EMESTT02.ST



FRANCE

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Interest Rates
 The following series have been suppressed:
   YIELD BOND GUARANTEED BY GOVTFRA.IRLTOT02.ST
   YIELD BOND NON GUARANT BY GVTFRA.IRLTOT03.ST
   PUB & SEMI-PUBLIC SECTOR BONDSFRA.IRLTPB03.ST
 The following series,the 10-year benchmark ("emprunt phare") series, has been included:
   10-year government bond yieldsFRA.IRLTGV01.ST



GERMANY

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Other prices
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   Cost of construction: residentialDEU.OPCNRE01.IXOB
External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   DEU FOREIGN POSITION COMMERCIAL BANKS, NETDEU.XFNPTB01.ST






GREECE

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National Accounts
 The following series have been included:
   Exports of goods and services GRC.CMPEXP.VIXOBSA
   Government final consumption expenditure GRC.CMPGC.VIXOBSA
   Gross domestic product GRC.CMPGDP.VIXOBSA
   Imports of goods and services GRC.CMPIMP.VIXOBSA
   Private final consumption expenditure GRC.CMPPC.VIXOBSA
   Exports of goods and services GRC.EXPEXP.LNBQRSA
   Government final consumption expenditure GRC.EXPGC.LNBQRSA
   Gross domestic product GRC.EXPGDP.CQRSA
   Gross domestic product GRC.EXPGDP.DNBSA
   Gross domestic product GRC.EXPGDP.LNBQRSA
   Imports of goods and services GRC.EXPIMP.LNBQRSA
   Private final consumption expenditure GRC.EXPPC.LNBQRSA
   Statistical discrepancy (gdp by exp) GRC.EXPSD.LNBQRSA
 The following series has been suppressed:
   GDP Gross domestic product 1995 prices saGRC.NAGVTT01.NCAL
Employment
 Annual figures have been re-compiled, previously they referred to the average and from now they refer to the second quarter:
   Employees: manufacturingGRC.EMDPIN03.IXOB
   Civilian EmploymentGRC.EMESTT02.ST
   Employment : Part-timeGRC.EMOTPT01.ST
Unemployment
 Annual figures have been re-compiled, previously they referred to the average and from now they refer to the second quarter:
   UNEMPLOYMENT TOTALGRC.UNLVSU01.ST
   Unemp % tot. labour force (LFS)GRC.UNRTSU01.ST
External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET FOREIGN POSITION COMM. BKSGRC.XFNPTB01.ST


ICELAND

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External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET FOR POSITON DEP MONEY BKSISL.XFNPTT01.ST


IRELAND

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External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET EXT LIAB ALL INSTITUTIONSIRL.XFNPTT01.ST


ITALY

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External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   Net foreign position, all banksITA.XFNPTT01.ST


NETHERLANDS

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External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET FOREIGN POSITIONNLD.XFNPTT01.ST




NORWAY

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National Accounts
 New national base year (2001=100) for the following series:
   Exports of goods and services NOR.CMPEXP.VIXOBSA
   Government final consumption expenditure NOR.CMPGC.VIXOBSA
   Gross domestic product NOR.CMPGDP.VIXOBSA
   Gross fixed capital formation NOR.CMPGF.VIXOBSA
   Imports of goods and services NOR.CMPIMP.VIXOBSA
   Private final consumption expenditure NOR.CMPPC.VIXOBSA
   Exports of goods and services NOR.EXPEXP.LNBQRSA
   Government final consumption expenditure NOR.EXPGC.LNBQRSA
   Gross domestic product NOR.EXPGDP.CQRSA
   Gross domestic product NOR.EXPGDP.DNBSA
   Gross domestic product NOR.EXPGDP.LNBQRSA
   Gross fixed capital formation NOR.EXPGF.LNBQRSA
   Imports of goods and services NOR.EXPIMP.LNBQRSA
   Private final consumption expenditure NOR.EXPPC.LNBQRSA
   Statistical discrepancy (gdp by exp) NOR.EXPSD.LNBQRSA
   Change in stocks NOR.EXPST.LNBQRSA
Production
 The corrected working days in the months have been revised by source from January 2004. These changes will provide a better consistency within the published indexes. The new figures are available from 1986.
   Industrial production ISIC C-ENOR.PRPEIN01.IXOB
   IIP MANUFACTURINGNOR.PRPEMN01.IXOB
External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET FGN POSITION COMM+SAVINGNOR.XFNPTT01.ST


POLAND

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Production
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   IIP CONSTRUCTIONPOL.PRPECN01.IXOB
   Industrial production ISIC C-EPOL.PRPEIN01.IXOB
   Industrial production ISIC C-E saPOL.PRPEIN01.IXOBSA
   IIP MININGPOL.PRPEMI01.IXOB
   IIP MANUFACTURINGPOL.PRPEMN01.IXOB
   IIP ELEC. GAS & WATERPOL.PRPEUT01.IXOB



SWEDEN

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Employment
 The following series has been included:
   Civilian EmploymentSWE.EMESTT02.ST
External Finance
 The following series has been suppressed:
   NET FOREIGN POSITION COMM BANKSSWE.XFNPTB01.ST


UNITED KINGDOM

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Construction
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   Vol. new orders: total buildings (GB) saGBR.CNNOTT01.IXOBSA
   Work done: total construction (GB) saGBR.CNWGTT01.IXOBSA


EURO AREA

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Monetary aggregates and their components
 The following series now include data from 1970 to 1980 as sourced from the ECB's historical series publication.
   Broad money (M3), saEMU.MABMBM01.IXOBSA
   Monetary aggregate M3EMU.MABMM301.ST
   Monetary aggregate M3 saEMU.MABMM301.STSA
   Monetary aggregate M1EMU.MANMM101.ST
   Monetary aggregate M1 saEMU.MANMM101.STSA


BRAZIL

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Consumer opinion surveys
 The following series has been revised by source for the entire period:
   Consumer - Confidence indicatorBRA.CSCICP01.IXN