DBNotes Countries - Mar04

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATABASE NOTES
MARCH 2004

AVAILABLE ON DISK FROM 05-03-2004
(STA05)DBNotes/Mar

EXPANSION OF DATA FOR BUSINESS TENDENCY AND CONSUMER OPINION SURVEYS

The OECD has significantly expanded the range of data series it provides on business tendency and consumer opinion surveys in the Main Economic Indicators (MEI) database, in particular for the Construction, Retail Trade and Services industries. This is in response to the increasing use of these data for monitoring and forecasting business cycles, and in econometric models to predict key macro economic variables (e.g. GDP, Industrial Production). An important aspect of these data is their timeliness, with data for the most recent month being made available in all MEI online and CD-ROM products e.g. February 2004 data is available with the March 2004 release (except consumer opinion series for Australia, Canada and New Zealand which will be published with a 1 month lag).

The OECD developed a core set of ‘target indicators’ for business tendency and consumer opinion surveys within each sector and then sought to obtain these series for each of the OECD Member and big 6 Non-Member countries. These target indicators are shown in the table below, although coverage of these series varies slightly amongst countries depending on the availability of data. Series for the Construction, Retail Trade and Services industries are now available in MEI products for all European Union and Candidate countries, United States (total non-manufacturing only), Japan, Korea, Switzerland, China, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. The exact list of new series available from March 2004 for each country and their series codes can be accessed in the attached Excel spreadsheet. This file also contains series which OECD has stopped publishing from March 2004 (indicated by an ‘S’ in the third column of the EXCEL file) or has recoded/replaced (indicated by an ‘R’).

Where available from data suppliers, OECD aims to provide both seasonally adjusted and raw series for these data. Where countries do not supply seasonally adjusted series, OECD is in the process of establishing (i.e. the work is not yet complete and additional series will be created in the coming months) seasonally adjusted series using X-12 Reg-ARIMA, provided the series exhibit seasonality. Series on Consumer Opinions, Construction, Retail Trade and Services industries for European Union and Candidate Countries are supplied by the European Commission and are only available in seasonally adjusted form (using the DAINTIES method of seasonal adjustment).

For further information on the inclusion of these new series, please contact Ronny Nilsson at ronny.nilsson@oecd.org.


Target list of series for Business and Consumer Opinions:

Manufacturing industry
   Manufacturing confidence indicator
   Business situation: present
   Business situation: future
   Production: tendency
   Production: future tendency
   Orders inflow or demand: tendency
   Order books: level
   Export order books: level
   Finished goods stocks: level
   Raw material stocks: present situation
   Rate of capacity utilisation
   Employment: future tendency
   Selling prices: future tendency

Construction
   Construction confidence indicator
   Business (activity) situation: present
   Business (activity) situation: future
   Demand/Orders inflow: future tendency
   Order books: level
   Employment: future tendency
   Selling prices: future tendency

Retail Trade
   Retail confidence indicator
   Business (activity) situation: present
   Business (activity) situation: future
   Volume of stocks: level
   Employment: future tendency
   Order intentions or demand

Other Services
   Service confidence indicator
   Business (activity) situation: present
   Business (activity) situation: future
   Demand evolution: tendency
   Demand evolution: future tendency
   Employment: tendency
   Employment: future tendency

Consumer opinions
   Consumer confidence indicator
   Expected inflation
   Expected economic situation

 

REVISIONS TO MEI SERIES DUE TO A CHANGE IN LINKING METHODOLOGY

The OECD has commenced a program to implement an improved methodology for linking different versions of historical time series used to create long time series in the MEI database. The main impacts of this change in methodology is to ensure that raw and seasonally adjusted versions of the same time series are completely consistent over time, and that measures of annual growth rates over the entire time series are as robust as possible.

Further information on the linking methodology used in the MEI database is available.

As a result, several time series have been revised in the March 2004 release of the MEI database. The series affected are listed in the attached Excel spreadsheet.

 

SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS


New seasonal adjustments by OECD are generally carried out once a year, when the December figure is available. Revisions to individual series due to new seasonal adjustments by national source or by OECD are not signalled in this note.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS


Detailed methodological information, updated with a delay of one month, is available on this CD-ROM in \doc\MetaCtr.htm or at http://www.oecd.org/std/mei.
Questions relating to these database notes should be directed by e-mail to stat.contact@oecd.org.

Countries List

MEXICO    UNITED STATES    CZECH REPUBLIC    DENMARK    GERMANY    GREECE    IRELAND    NETHERLANDS    SPAIN    INDONESIA    


MEXICO

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Producer Prices
 New national base year (December 2003=100) for the following series:
   PPI Agricultural productsMEX.PPAGTT01.IXOB
   PPI All items- proxyMEX.PPIAMP01.IXOB
   PPI All itemsMEX.PPIATT01.IXOB



UNITED STATES

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Employment
 The following series has been revised by source following the conversion from the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System.
   Employees: manufacturing SAUSA.EMDPIN03.STSA
Labour compensation
 The following series, which now begins in 1987, has been revised by source following the conversion from the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System. Data have been recalculated by source from 1987 to 1997 as the revised compensation data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are available only from 1998.
   Unit labour cost manufacturing saUSA.LCULMN01.IXOBSA


CZECH REPUBLIC

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Production
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   Industrial production ISIC C-ECZE.PRPEIN01.IXOB
   Industrial production ISIC C-E saCZE.PRPEIN01.IXOBSA
   IIP Mining and QuarryingCZE.PRPEMI01.IXOB
   IIP Total ManufacturingCZE.PRPEMN01.IXOB
   IIP Electricity, Gas and Water SupplyCZE.PRPEUT01.IXOB


DENMARK

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Employment
 The following series have been recalculated by source from the third quarter of 1998:
   Employees manufacturingDNK.EMDPIN03.ST
    Employees: totalDNK.EMDPTT01.ST



GERMANY

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Production
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   IIP CONSTRUCTIONDEU.PRPECN01.IXOB
   IIP CONSTRUCTION SADEU.PRPECN01.IXOBSA
   DEU Industrial production ISIC C-EDEU.PRPEIN01.IXOB
   DEU Industrial production ISIC C-E saDEU.PRPEIN01.IXOBSA
   IIP MANUFACTURINGDEU.PRPEMN01.IXOB
   IIP MANUFACTURING SADEU.PRPEMN01.IXOBSA
   IIP DURABLE CONSUMER GOODSDEU.PRTGCG02.IXOB
   IIP DURABLE CONSUMER GOODS SADEU.PRTGCG02.IXOBSA
   IIP Non-durable Consumer GoodsDEU.PRTGCG03.IXOB
   IIP Non-durable Consumer Goods, saDEU.PRTGCG03.IXOBSA
   IIP Intermediate GoodsDEU.PRTGIG01.IXOB
   IIP Intermediate Goods, saDEU.PRTGIG01.IXOBSA
   IIP INVESTMENT GOODSDEU.PRTGVG01.IXOB
   IIP INVESTMENT GOODS SADEU.PRTGVG01.IXOBSA
Producer Prices
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   PPI Food beverages and tobaccoDEU.PPFAFT01.IXOB
   PPI Consumer goodsDEU.PPTGCG01.IXOB
   PPI Intermediate goodsDEU.PPTGIG01.IXOB
   PPI Investment goodsDEU.PPTGVG01.IXOB


GREECE

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Other prices
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   Cost of construction: residentialGRC.OPCNRE01.IXOB


IRELAND

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Domestic Demand
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VALUEIRL.DDRSVA01.IXOB
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VALUE SAIRL.DDRSVA01.IXOBSA
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VOLUMEIRL.DDRSVO01.IXOB
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VOLUME SAIRL.DDRSVO01.IXOBSA


NETHERLANDS

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Domestic Demand
 New national base year (2000=100) for the following series:
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VALUENLD.DDRSVA01.IXOB
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VALUE SANLD.DDRSVA01.IXOBSA
   Retail sales durable goods: valueNLD.DDRSVA04.IXOB
   RETAIL SALES TOTAL VOLUME SANLD.DDRSVO01.IXOBSA


SPAIN

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Business tendency surveys (manufacturing)
 The following series have been revised by source from 1993 for raw series and from the beginning for the seasonnally adjusted series in order to follow the European Commission directives:
   Manufacturing - Business situation: present saESP.BSBUCT01.STSA
   Manufacturing - Rate of capacity utilisationESP.BSCURT01.ST
   Manufacturing - Rate of capacity utilisation sESP.BSCURT01.STSA
   Manufacturing - Finished goods stocks: levelESP.BSFGLV01.ST
   Manufacturing - Finished goods stocks: level sESP.BSFGLV01.STSA
   BSS Order books or demand Future tendancyESP.BSOBFT01.ST
   BSS Order books or demand Future tendancy SAESP.BSOBFT01.STSA
   Manufacturing - Order books: levelESP.BSOBLV01.ST
   Manufacturing - Order books: level saESP.BSOBLV01.STSA
   Manufacturing - Production: future tendencyESP.BSPRFT01.ST
   Manufacturing - Production: future tendency saESP.BSPRFT01.STSA
   Manufacturing - Production: tendencyESP.BSPRTE01.ST
   Manufacturing - Production: tendency saESP.BSPRTE01.STSA
   Manufacturing - Selling prices: future tendencESP.BSSPFT01.ST
   Manufacturing - Selling prices: future tendencESP.BSSPFT01.STSA



INDONESIA

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Production
 The following series has been included:
   Industrial production: Manufacturing saIDN.PRPEMN01.IXOBSA
 The following series has been revised by source for the entire period:
   Industrial production: ManufacturingIDN.PRPEMN01.IXOB