OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook › World commodity prices at higher average levels
This Outlook was prepared in a period when agricultural and food prices have risen to record-high levels, at least in nominal terms. The report discusses the reasons for these price hikes and finds that some are of a temporary nature, notably adverse weather conditions in some key producing countries and regions, while others are likely to prove more durable. The Outlook concludes that prices are unlikely to be sustained at current high levels and that farmers around the world will respond by boosting plantings and increasing supplies, with a return to more normal growing conditions in the main producing regions.
However, it also points to growing feedstock demand from an increasing biofuel industry, sustained high oil prices, continued strong growth in food demand as incomes rise in emerging economies and historically low global stocks as some of the factors which will keep prices higher on average than in the past decade and possibly more volatile. The report provides a quantitative assessment of the main factors that will help sustain higher prices over the coming decade and shows that growth in feedstock demand for biofuel production is one of the important ones. The projections and past trends are presented in the statistical annex, and can be viewed in more detail at on this website (www.agri-outlook.org)
The market projections cover OECD countries, as well as other key agricultural players including India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina, and many other non-OECD countries and regions. In total, the projections encompass 39 countries and 19 regions. The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic conditions; population growth; national agricultural, biofuel and trade policies; production technologies; and normal weather conditions. The Agricultural Outlook provides a picture of how agricultural markets could evolve in the coming decade given the underlying assumptions.