OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023
|Introduction to the Outlook
The Agricultural Outlook, 2014-2023, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.
The special feature on India has been prepared in collaboration with analysts associated with the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Government of India and the FAO Representation in India. However, OECD and FAO are responsible for the information and projections contained in this document, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Indian institutions.Overview of 2014
The international prices of major crops have dropped significantly from their historical highs, largely in response to bumper crops in 2013/14. In contrast, meat and dairy product prices are at historically high levels, primarily because their supply fell short of expectations in 2013. World ethanol and biodiesel prices continued their declines from the historical peak levels they had reached in 2011 in a context of ample supply for both.
Demand for agricultural products is expected to remain firm although expanding at slower rates compared with the past decade. Cereals are still at the core of human diets, but growing incomes, urbanization and changes in eating habits contribute to the transition of diets that are higher in protein, fats and sugar...Special feature: India
This year the Outlook turns its attention to India, the country with the world’s second largest population, and the largest in terms of number of farmers and rural population. Most importantly, India currently has the largest number of food insecure people, about one-quarter of the world’s total. India’s agricultural markets have witnessed considerable transformation in recent years, with large gains in production and productivity. However, major concerns have centred on food insecurity in the presence of trade surpluses, and how to sustain agricultural growth and employment in populous rural communities.
The Outlook portrays a relatively optimistic scenario for India, and assuming strong economic growth and increases in productivity continue near recent trends, considerable potential exists for India to reduce food insecurity in the next decade.