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Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, June 2020

 

10/06/2020 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs) are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead. However, it should be noted that, in the current circumstances, the CLIs should be interpreted with care as considerable uncertainty surrounding the impact of current lock-downs and transitions out of lock-downs remain. 

As always, the magnitude of the CLI decline should not be regarded as a measure of the degree of contraction in economic activity, but rather as an indication of the strength of the signal.

 

 OECD area

OECD area 

Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further.

The above graph show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.

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Watch our video explaining how
the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled
  

Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.

 

 Do you need help with our data? Please consult:

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