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Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, January 2021

 

CLIs continue to indicate a mixed picture across the major economies

 

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14 Jan 2021 - The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs) continue to recover from the COVID-19 crisis lows in most major economies, although the pace of growth varies.

Among large OECD economies, the CLIs for the United States and Japan continue to point to stable growth, which is now also the assessment for the euro area as a whole including Germany, France and Italy. The CLI for Canada is improving steadily, while in the United Kingdom the CLI continues to point to a slowdown.

Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for Brazil and the manufacturing sector of China continue to signal a steady increase while in India and Russia the CLIs continue to point to stable growth.

Although vaccinations have begun, governments’ efforts to contain COVID-19 are ongoing and the rapidly changing nature of such measures mean that indicators used in the CLI compilation may fluctuate. As such, the CLIs should be interpreted with care. 

OECD area: Stable growth

Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further.

The above graph show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed

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Watch our video explaining how
the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled
  

Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.

 

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