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Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, February 2019

 

OECD CLIs continue to point to easing growth momentum in most major economies

 

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11/02/2019 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, continue to point to easing growth momentum in most major economies.

Easing growth momentum remains the assessment for the United States1, Canada, the euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy, and the United Kingdom.

In Japan, the CLI continues to anticipate stable growth momentum.

Among major emerging economies, the CLI continues to indicate easing growth momentum for Russia with similar signs now emerging for the industrial sector in China, led by the slowdown in the production of motor vehicles. Stable growth momentum remains the assessment for India while in Brazil signs of growth regaining momentum have now emerged, driven primarily by higher confidence in the services sector.

 

 Easing growth momentum in the OECD area

 OECD CLIs continue to point to easing growth momentum in most major economies

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1)  Due to the recent federal government shutdown in the United States, data for "Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders" and "Residential building work started" compiled by the US Census Bureau are not currently available for December 2018. As such, and in order to publish a preliminary version of the US CLI, estimates for December have been extrapolated. All other indicators used in constructing the CLI for the United States are available and have been incorporated in this month’s assessment.

 

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