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Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, August 2020

 

OECD CLIs continue to strengthen from crisis-low in all major economies

 

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10/08/2020 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for July continue to strengthen from the Covid-19 crisis lows across all major economies, but they remain below long-term trends and at levels lower than those recorded prior to the initial Covid-19 outbreak.

Following their strong increase in June, the pace of improvement in CLIs inevitably slowed in most major economies. In China, early signs that appeared in June of the CLI returning to levels seen just prior to the crisis have been reversed.

With uncertainty persisting around the possibility of future mitigation measures, the CLIs should be interpreted with care. As always, the magnitude of CLI should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in the economic activity.

 

OECD CLIs continue to strengthen from crisis-low in all major economies 

Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further.

Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.

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the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled
  

Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.

 

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