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This paper discusses the policy imperatives in the short term, in the face of the ongoing economic crisis, and reforms that could be implemented over the longer term to improve the efficiency and resilience of the financial system and raise Russia’s potential growth rate.
In February 2009 the Russian Federation formally applied to the OECD Secretary-General to accede to the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention and become a full participant in Working Group on Bribery. Consideration of that request will be undertaken by the Working Group following receipt of information from the Russian Federation.
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One of the major challenges faced by transitional economies has been to adjust institutions that were designed to function in a planning environment to function in an increasingly market-oriented environment. One of the most important of these institutional reforms has been the restructuring of the budget system. The latter should be interpreted quite widely to encompass the institutional framework as well as the administrative
Russia should aim for a gradual switch from a quasi-fixed exchange rate policy to inflation targeting. Not all conditions for adopting inflation targeting are yet in place, but preparations should be accelerated.
The global crisis put an end to a decade of rapid growth. Russia needs to minimise the downturn and establish a sounder long-term growth model. Growth-friendly product market regulation and a more efficient and resilient banking system will be key.
After a decade of rapid growth, Russia has fallen into recession. The near term challenge is to limit the extent of the downturn, while beyond the crisis, a sounder growth model should be put in place.
Despite improvements in some areas, many aspects of Russia’s regulatory framework are still restrictive and economic performance could be enhanced by bringing regulation into line with best practices.
The economic downturn has hit shipbuilding hard. New orders have contracted by up to 90% and cancellations have increased, which is likely to result in significant excess shipbuilding capacity. This outlook is unlikely to improve for some time.
The immediate challenge is to gauge the optimal amount and form of stimulus and support for banks, while safeguarding fiscal sustainability. Looking further ahead, tax reform can help raise potential growth rates.
Despite improvements, the banking system remains underdeveloped and crisis-prone. The current crisis, albeit painful, may yield restructuring and new regulatory approaches that will be positive in the long run.