Publications

Oil 2018

Analysis and Forecasts to 2023

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Published on March 05, 2018

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Oil 2018 is the IEA’s annual five-year forecast of global oil demand, supply refining, and trade.

Global oil demand growth remains healthy driven by developing countries in Asia, even as oil consumption growth slows down in China thanks to new environmental policies designed to curb air pollution. Strong growth in petrochemicals demand globally is another key area of growth.

Upstream investments have not rebounded from the historic two-year decline seen in 2015-2016 except in the United States which dominates the supply growth story. Meanwhile, there is uncertainty over the longer-term prospects of the successful OPEC and non-OPEC market management policy.

These strands set the scene for Oil 2018’s analysis of the market, which examines a wide range of other important issues and uncertainties, including:

  • The implications for oil demand of the 2020 IMO marine fuel regulations.
  • The growth of the global petrochemicals sector.
  • The rise of electrification in China’s transport fleet.
  • Decline rates in key oil producing countries.
  • Crude quality issues arising from the rapid increase in US production.
  • Investment needs in North American takeaway capacity.
  • Implications for global refining of the looming capacity surplus.
  • Trends in global oil trade.