12/05/2020 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs) in most major economies collapsed by unprecedented levels in April as containment measures for Covid-19 continued to have a severe impact on production, consumption and confidence.
In China, however, where containment measures have already been eased, the CLI for the industrial sector is tentatively pointing towards a positive change in momentum, with April’s CLI and a large upward revision for March both pushing the CLI upwards. Some care is needed in interpretation, as only partial information is currently available for China in April.
In addition to the detailed statistical charts further below, visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to create your own charts with CLI data for more than 40 countries and area totals across varied time periods.
Data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MEI_CLI
Methodological Notes are available at: www.oecd.org/sdd/leading-indicators/44728410.pdf
Watch our video explaining the CLIs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UY8iPW0GVAo
Next release: 10 June 2020
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Note: Composite leading indicators (CLIs) are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead. However, care needs to be taken in interpreting CLIs in the current crisis as governments attempt to tackle the COVID 19 pandemic. Uncertainty surrounding the duration of lockdown measures has complicated the ability of CLIs to provide those forward looking signals. For those economies still in lockdown and with uncertainty about the timing or nature of easing measures, current estimates of the CLI should be viewed as coincident rather than leading. As always, the magnitude of the CLI decline should not be regarded as a measure of the degree of contraction in economic activity, but rather as an indication of the strength of the signal.