The OECD composite leading indicators signal mild loss of growth momentum
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14/06/2011 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to a mild loss of growth momentum in most major economies for April 2011.
A notable exception is the United States which continues expanding relative to trend, albeit more moderately than in last month’s assessment. The CLIs point to a stable pace of expansion in Germany and the United Kingdom, clear signs of slowdown in the pace of activity in France and Italy, and a likely moderation of growth towards its long-term trend in Canada.
The CLI for China points to a possible moderation in economic activity. Other CLIs indicate a slowdown in Brazil and India and the first sign of a loss of growth momentum in Russia.
Because of the exceptional circumstances the country is facing, it is not possible to provide reliable estimates of the CLI for Japan at this stage.
The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) suggest that in ASEAN economies the growth momentum will continue (Read more).
Stable pace of expansion in the OECD area
Underlying data - Source: Composite Leading Indicators (Main Economic Indicators)
From February 2011 the OECD publishes Composite Leading Indicators for Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia. The methodology used can be downloaded here.
The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".
For a better interpretation of OECD CLI consult the following document: Interpreting OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).