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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook: 2005-2014

 

For the first time, the Agricultural Outlook has been prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and thus draws on the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations (free Highlights). This annual publication analyses world commodity market trends and long-run prospects for the main agricultural products. It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies.  Each edition highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence the agricultural outlook. In this edition, the projections have been extended to cover a larger number of developing countries, including for the first time India and South Africa, in addition to Argentina, Brazil, China and Russia, and many more regions.

This eleventh edition of the Agricultural Outlook provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on medium-term projections that extend to 2014 for production, consumption, trade and prices of included commodities. The projections presented in the report are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, agricultural and trade policies and average weather conditions, and thus are one representative scenario for agricultural markets over the next decade.

World agricultural production is projected to continue to grow to 2014 but at a slower pace than in the last decade. Broad-based economic growth in both OECD and non-member economies, and moderate population growth will lead to higher per capita incomes and consumption gains world-wide, but particularly in developing countries. Rising demand will provide the foundation for an increase in agricultural trade over the projection period. However, competition in global commodity markets is expected to intensify as production expands in many countries.


The complete edition of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook: 2005-2014 is available from: