India - Economic forecast summary (May 2018)


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Growth is increasing, making India the fastest-growing G20 economy. Investment and exports, supported by the smoother implementation of the new goods and services tax (GST), are becoming major growth engines. Inflation will hover within the target band, with upside risks reflecting rising oil prices and an increase in housing allowance for public employees. The current account deficit will increase. Job creation in the formal sector will remain sluggish, leaving the vast majority of workers in low-productivity, low-paid activities.

Fiscal and monetary policies are projected to remain broadly neutral. To reduce the relatively high public debt-to-GDP ratio, containing contingent fiscal liabilities is key, including through better governance of public enterprises. Better risk assessment in banks would allow allocating financial resources to the best projects and avoiding a new increase in non-performing loans. Investing more in education and training, combined with a modernisation of labour laws, would help create better jobs and make growth more inclusive.

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EO103 IND.2

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Other information

Economic Survey of India (survey page)


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