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This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it essentially resulted from a large increase in the unemployment gap.
In this paper we develop a simple analytical framework to analyze “good” and “bad equilibria” in public-debt and growth dynamics.
Europe is putting in place a new system of fiscal rules following the euro area sovereign debt crisis and decades of rising government to debt-to-GDP ratios. These include the so-called "six pack" to upgrade the Stability and Growth Pact to a new Treaty incorporating the "fiscal compact".
Economic downturns which have their roots in preceding credit excesses and debt overhang have tended historically to be long lasting, whether the financial sector remained healthy or not.
Despite a deep recession in 2009 and weak growth in subsequent years, Hungary’s fiscal position compares favourably with many other OECD countries.
Three main approaches can be used to assess infrastructure performance. The first employs macro econometric techniques to estimate the impact of the existing infrastructure capital stock on growth and to infer its growth maximising level.
Economic growth is projected to be strengthening from mid-2011 onwards, but will be insufficient to restore the sustainability of public finances.
English, , 6,050kb
Fiscal consolidation: How much, how fast and by what means? OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 1
English, Excel, 445kb
Large fiscal challenges will pre-occupy OECD governments for some time to come. The economic crisis that began in 2008 caused deficits to surge, and fiscal imbalances were swollen further by stimulus measures and bank rescue operations.
English, , 374kb
Fiscal consolidation: How much is needed to reduce debt to a prudent level? OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 11