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This paper identifies refinements to the macroeconomic framework that will help Brazil to achieve strong performance in a new environment.
This paper tests the hypothesis that, by giving people more voice in the government decision-making process, fiscal decentralisation fosters social capital, measured in terms of interpersonal trust.
Brazil has recently delivered remarkable performance in economic, social and financial terms. However, Brazil still needs to address longer-term challenges to continue to bolster the economy’s growth potential and close the gap in living standards in relation to the OECD area at a faster pace.
The complexities and fragmentation of Brazil’s tax system make it particularly onerous to enterprises, making it a priority for reform. The state-level VAT has often been used as an industrial policy instrument, resulting in predatory tax competition among the states. Remaining federal levies on enterprise turnover are detrimental to the competitiveness of Brazilian exports. The burden of payroll taxes and social security
To investigate the possible impact of terms of trade gains on the real economy, this paper estimates normalised quadratic input demand and output supply functions for the Brazilian economy during 1997-2008.
To shed further light on this issue in the context of emerging market economies, this paper uses Brazilian data to estimate the determinants of the current account in a smooth transition vector autoregressive (ST VAR) setting.
Brazil’s economic fundamentals have improved considerably in the ten years following the abandonment of exchange rate management in 1999 and adoption of a policy framework combining inflation targeting, rules based fiscal management and a flexible exchange rate. The economy is therefore weathering the effects of the unfolding global financial and economic crisis rather well, and an incipient recovery is getting under way. The policy
Despite the current problems related to the global financial and economic crisis, ongoing macroeconomic adjustment continues to bear fruit. Attainment of the primary budget surplus targets has delivered falling public debt-to-GDP ratios since 2003. Prudent debt management has reduced refinancing risk and external vulnerabilities. The forward looking conduct of monetary policy within a framework combining inflation targeting with a
Despite considerable progress in many areas, there remains substantial scope for making government operations more cost-effective. Brazil spends a high share of GDP on selected government financed programmes in relation to many OECD countries and its emerging-market peers, but outcome indicators are often comparatively poor. As a result, in the absence of efficiency gains, further increases in spending would need to be financed
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Brazil has now entered a more advanced phase of economic development, with the need to strengthen the institutional foundations for a market-based economy.