Agricultural Outlook: Preparing for the Future
OECD Conference Centre
The world was unprepared for the recent commodity price shocks. The sharp rise in agricultural commodity prices from 2006 through early 2008 led to much higher food costs, reduced food accessibility and violent demonstrations in the streets of many developing countries. Affected governments reacted with ad hoc policy measures to ensure short-term food security (e.g. export restrictions, price controls, import tariff reduction, emergency stock building). International bodies increased humanitarian aid and stepped-up multilateral dialogue on longer term strategies to address the emerging food crisis.
By the end of 2008, agricultural commodity prices, for the most part, had dropped dramatically (as did oil prices). The commodity price outlook is now more in line with historical trends. But agricultural markets will remain volatile and production shortfalls will occur again. Governments, facing irate consumers, will likely react with the same “beggar thy neighbour” policy measures that can exacerbate the situation, send the wrong signals to producers and interrupt food supplies in other countries. What is a more appropriate policy response? What can be done to reduce the frequency of commodity price swings? What can be done to better deal with such events when they do occur?
In the longer run, food demand will rise with population and incomes. Global demand for food, feed and fibre is expected to nearly double by 2050. Agriculture will have to compete for scarce land and water resources while adjusting to climate change and to doing its part to preserve natural habitats, endangered species and biodiversity. Will we be able to feed the world? What types of investment and development are needed? Are existing policies appropriate for these future developments? What are the priority policy areas?
The 2009 Global Forum on Agriculture will examine the medium and longer term prospects for the sector and what policies are required to enhance future food security. The Forum will draw on recent analytical work, primarily from the OECD and FAO.
Agenda of the Global Forum, posted on 6 July 2009 (153 KB)
Agenda of the Global Forum -French version-, posted on 6 July 2009 (210 KB)
List of Participants
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009-2018
Highlights 3,731 KB
Perspectives agricoles de l'OCDE et de la FAO 2009-2018
Synthèse 2,738 KB
The purpose of the Global Forum on Agriculture (GFA) is to support the OECD Committee for Agriculture in fulfilling its mandate of providing forward looking information, analysis and advice that considers the perspectives of members and non-members, as well as other stakeholders.
The GFA is a key instrument for broad-based dialogue between OECD members and emerging/developing economies on agricultural-related issues.
The GFA fosters an informed dialogue on trade, agriculture and development policy with an aim to promote a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the global agro-food industry. In order to achieve such a consensus, it is necessary to involve a wide range of stakeholders and to examine the issues of most pressing importance to emerging/developing countries. These issues include both country-specific matters and policy concerns that arise as a result of economic linkages with OECD countries.
Papers and PowerPoint presentations
Neil Fraser, Forum Chair
SESSION I: Agricultural Outlook: Preparing for the Future
Medium-term Agricultural Outlook
• Medium-term Agricultural Outlook - Pavel Vavra, OECD (PowerPoint Presentation, 1,392 KB)
• Issues for Emerging/Developing Economies - Alexander Sarris, FAO (Draft PowerPoint Presentation, 125 KB)
• Panel commentaries:
- Linda Fulponi, OECD
- Christopher Delgado, World Bank
- Sarala Gopalan, IFAP, India (Document 35 KB)
Longer Term Outlook for the Agri-food sector
• Agri-food in an Increasingly Globalised World – Frank van Tongeren, OECD (Draft PowerPoint Presentation 678 KB)
• Agriculture and the Environment - Helen Mountford, OECD (PowerPoint Presentation 917 KB)
• Panel commentaries:
- Siwa Msangi, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
- Javier Blas, Financial Times
SESSION 2 – Policy Directions and Priorities
Short-term Policy Responses to Higher and volatile Food Prices
- Overview of Responses to Higher Food Prices - Andrzej Kwiecinski, OECD
(PowerPoint Presentation 1,411 KB)
- China: Pressures, Responses and Outcomes, Xiande Li, CAAS (PowerPoint Presentation, 3,88 KB)
- India: Pressures, Responses and Outcomes - Simrit Kaur, University of Delhi (Draft PowerPoint Presentation, 404 KB)
- Brazil: Pressures, Responses and Outcomes - Caio Galvao de Franca, Ministry of Agrarian Development (PowerPoint Presentation, 996 KB)
- South Africa : Pressures, Responses and Outcomes - Sithembele Kelembe, National Department of Agriculture (PowerPoint Presentation 413 KB)
Longer Term Policy Responses to Food Security
- The Development Dimension of Food Security - Phil Abbott, Purdue University (Draft PowerPoint Presentation, 421 KB); Development Dimensions of High Food Prices (1,120 KB, May 2009)
- Feeding the World in 2050 - Keith Wiebe, FAO (Preliminary Programme 439 KB; PowerPoint Presentation 388 KB)
- Panel commentaries:
- Tetsuo Usikusa, Ministry of Agriculture, Japan (PowerPoint Presentation 892 KB)
- Raul Hopkins, IFAD, Latin America and Caribbean Division
- Alain-Dominique Quintart, Syngenta (Syngenta)
- Baris Karapinar, World Trade Institute (WTI); (FOOD CRISES and the WTO -Cambridge University Press, Forthcoming, 49 KB-)
Forum Summary - Wayne Jones, OECD
Final comments from the floor
Forum closing comments - Neil Fraser, Forum Chair