About the Agricultural Outlook site

 

The purpose of this website is to bring into the public domain information used and generated by collaborative work between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in the field of agricultural market outlook.

The final product of this collaboration is an annual publication presenting projections and related market analysis for some fifteen agricultural products over a ten year horizon.

 

Benefiting from the commodity, policy and country expertise of organisations, the report analyses world commodity market trends and medium term prospects for the main agricultural products. It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes.

 

In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including India, China, Brazil and Russia as well as Argentina, South Africa and other developing countries.

 

The Agricultural Outlook Database

In addition to highlights from the outlook publication, this website also provides the database that has been used in the analytical process. For the commodity markets analysed in the Outlook, detailed supply and use balances are available, as well as domestic and international commodity prices.

 

The database also includes the detailed commodity and trade policy information where this was used in preparing the projections as well as the main underlying trends in key macro-economic variables and population.

 

For OECD member-countries, the data is accompanied by detailed meta-data, where for non-member countries this documentation is still under development. In most cases the data is going back to 1970 and extended to the latest year in the projections.

 

Agricultural Outlook Tools

The main tool in the OECD-FAO agricultural outlook process is a partial equilibrium modelling framework. This effort was started by the OECD in the early 1990s through the development of its AGLINK model, an economic model of world agriculture with very detailed agricultural sector representation of OECD countries as well as Argentina, Brazil, China and Russia.

 

Since 2004, this modelling system has been greatly enhanced through the development by FAO of a similar agricultural model – COSIMO – representing the agricultural sectors in a large number of developing countries.

 

The AGLINK-COSIMO modelling system is presently one of the most comprehensive partial equilibrium models for global agriculture. The model is one of the tools used in the generation of baseline projections underlying the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.

 

For many countries agricultural policies are specifically modelled within AGLINK-COSIMO. This makes the model a powerful tool for forward looking analysis of domestic and trade policies through the comparison of scenarios of alternative policy settings against the benchmark of the baseline projections.

 Documentation on the AGLINK-COSIMO model (pdf, 331 KB)

 

The AGLINK-COSIMO website is password protected and accessible only to AGLINK-COSIMO collaborators in national administrations. However, under certain conditions, other users can be granted access as well to part of, or to the entire model.

 

Through this website users have access to a general description of the model, detailed model documentation, the full set of equations and model parameters and the results of tests carried out in the process of model validation.

 

 

 

 

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