Statistics Working Paper N. 39- 2011/4 - This paper reports on revision properties of different de-trending and smoothing methods (cycle estimation methods), including PAT with MCD smoothing, a double Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) filter. The different cycle estimation methods are rated on their revision performance in a simulated real time experiment. Our goal is to find a robust method that gives
Consumer confidence in the OECD area has levelled out since January 2010, possibly announcing a new peak or maybe just indicating uncertainty in the coming months. Confidence levels remain historically low, a result of the financial crisis and indicating that the effects of the crisis are continuing to be felt by consumers who remain pessimistic about the future.
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In July 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 3 countries (China, India, Indonesia). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised.
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In February 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 8 countries (Brazil, China, Indonesia, Ireland, Korea, the Slovak Republic, Switzerland, the Russian Federation). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised. This document provides further details on the change.
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Depuis la récente crise économique et financière, une attention toute particulière a été portée sur les indicateurs composites de l'OCDE ; de même le nombre de ses utilisateurs s’est élargi au-delà de son public spécialisé traditionnel. Pour répondre aux besoins de cette clientèle élargie, l'OCDE a décidé de produire cette note afin de fournir non seulement une explication plus accessible et moins technique des indicateurs composites
Le Manuel des enquêtes de conjoncture auprès des entreprises (PDF) est un guide pratique sur la conception et la mise en place des enquêtes de conjoncture, sur l'interprétation des résultats de telles enquêtes et leur l’utilisation pour l’analyse économique à court terme.
Consumer confidence indicators in recent months have pointed to a marked improvement in sentiment since the historic lows recorded towards the beginning of 2009. Whilst encouraging, some caution is needed as confidence remains low by historic standards. This is shown in the following graphs for the major seven OECD member countries and the country grouping "OECD Area", which put consumer confidence indicators in a historical context.
Recent data on consumer confidence suggests that households are quite pessimistic on the severity of the current financial crisis, and its impact on the economy at large. Confidence indicators for OECD member countries in recent months have witnessed an almost unprecedented collapse, with some levels falling to the lowest on record.
A guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. In particular, this handbook is concerned with indicators which compare and rank country performance.
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For good economic policy making and many other economic agents’ decisions it is necessary to correctly assess the current and, especially, the future economic situation. Over the last 50 years several leading indicators have been developed to signal the movements, up and down, of future economic activity before they occur, as well as to provide some indication of the magnitude of those movements. One of the most well known (and