This report analyses the results of simulations using an agent based model of financial markets to show how excessive levels of leverage in financial markets can lead to a systemic crash. Investors overload on risky assets betting more than they have to gamble creating a tremendous level of vulnerability in the system as a whole. Plummeting asset prices render banks unable or unwilling to provide credit as they fear they might be unable to cover their own liabilities due to potential loan defaults. Whether an overleveraged borrower is a sovereign nation or major financial institution, recent history illustrates how defaults carry the risk of contagion in a globally interconnected economy. The resulting slowdown of investment in the real economy impacts actors at all levels, from small businesses to homebuyers. Bankruptcies lead to job losses and a drop in aggregate demand, leading to more businesses and individuals being unable to repay their loans, reinforcing a downward spiral that can trigger a recession, depression or bring about stagflation in the real economy. This can have a devastating impact not only on economic prosperity across the board, but also consumer sentiment and trust in the ability of the system to generate long-term wealth and growth.
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Prepared for the G20 Los Cabos Summit, this policy note discusses the potential for and the barriers to pension funds investing in green infrastructure projects.
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The incidence of perceived implicit guarantees, mostly from governments, for the debt of European banks has decreased recently after several years of increase dating from the beginning of the financial crisis. This reflects to a large extent the deterioration in the strength of the sovereigns that are seen as providing the guarantees..
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This special issue of Financial Market Trends compiles selected articles based on presentations given at the Symposium on “Financial crisis management and the use of government guarantees” in October 2011, which were first released between October and December 2011. The Symposium, part of the OECD’s work on financial sector guarantees, gathered policy makers, policy consultants and other academics to discuss the policy response to the
This book examines pension reform during the crisis and beyond, the design of automatic adjustment mechanisms, reversals of systemic pension reforms in Central and Eastern Europe, coverage of private pension systems and guarantees in defined contribution pension systems.
This project explores how the structure of international capital flows drives financial fragility, and examines how policies can help increase financial stability.
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Despite massive support from governments and widespread regulatory changes since the crisis struck, banks are deleveraging in the worst possible way impeding economic recovery. Capital levels are too low (particularly in Europe), business models are too risky, and the approach to regulation is biased against lending to the private sector. A lack of trust makes private sector equity investment and funding problematic, and losses and
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This report analyses the management of investment risk in the Chilean pension system, focusing on various risk measures that can be applied in a defined contribution context. The report also reviews Chilean regulations regarding risk management in the context of international best practices.
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This presentation provides a selective update of the 2010 report on "Systemic Financial Crises: How to fund resolution".
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A survey of the literature on asset price impacts on the real economy shows a much wider range of work on consumption and related wealth effects than on investment.