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Speeches / Presentations
Because the OECD is not only a “Global Standard Setter and a house for best practices”. It is also a pathfinder for effective implementation and we will be very proud to share our experience and expertise with APEC member economies and their business circles to develop innovative ideas and practical tools for competitive economies and inclusive societies!
We are here today to provide you with a brief snapshot of our forthcoming Economic Outlook. The complete Outlook will be finalised for a release on the 25th of November, but we would like to share with you our main views ahead of the G20 Summit next week in Brisbane.
In the past year, Slovakia has made considerable progress in recovering its economic dynamism. GDP is set to grow by 2.6% in 2014 and 2.8% in 2015, double the rate of 2013. We estimate that the rate of economic expansion will increase further in 2016 to reach 3.4%. Slovakia’s real GDP per capita is now further ahead of pre-crisis levels – than in any other Eurozone country.
Slovakia’s growth performance has improved, but there is still a lot to get growth back to pre-crisis rates, and to ensure all regions and segments of society can benefit. The country is still facing worryingly high levels of unemployment, which peaked at 14% in 2013. Two-thirds of those without jobs were affected by long-term unemployment.
Portugal is recovering, with important reforms now bearing fruit. Fiscal consolidation has made Portugal’s public finances stronger. Portugal has gained access to market funding at lower rates than most of us would have imagined two years ago. Despite many improvements, Portugal’s recovery remains a work in progress.
The downturn in fixed investment among advanced economies from the onset of the global crisis was unusually severe, widespread and long-lasting relative to comparable episodes in the past and investment gaps are set to remain large relative to projected future long-term trends.
APEC economies are faring relatively well and China continues to be a locomotive for the world economy, even at a lower cruising speed. However, even those that are currently doing well cannot be completely sheltered from the storm. It is critical that we get the engine of global growth up and running once again.
Six years into the crisis and a robust recovery is still distant. The global economy is continuing to expand at a moderate and uneven pace. International trade, global investment and credit are still hesitant. The threat of so-called ‘secular stagnation’ remains high, especially in Europe.
As a result of continued policy support and favourable financial conditions, global growth is expected to be somewhat more vigorous in the latter part of 2014 and into 2015. Nonetheless, the OECD’s recent Interim Assessment has revised growth projections downwards for most major economies as the recovery is turning out to be weaker than expected.
This edition of the Forum is called “By Africa, For Africa”. The choice of title underscores the importance of African citizens, African companies and African governments as drivers of the development process. The OECD is here to listen, to engage, and to strengthen this unique partnership with Africa and its institutions.