Productivité et croissance à long terme

Evidence-Based Economic Policy in the Aftermath of the Crisis


Proposed Agenda for 21 June 2013 NERO Meeting,
Paris, France

1. Monetary Policy                       9h to 10h30


  • How have unorthodox monetary policies affected financial markets and real activity? What criteria are currently being proposed for reducing the use of such policies, and what are the expected consequences from various transition paths?
  • Could additional unorthodox measures be applied in the euro area, and if so what would be the likely consequences?
  • What are the international spillover effects of unorthodox policies, and how might international competitive pressures feature in decisions about retreating from these policies?


            Bill Robson, CD Howe, “Concerns about the ‘low for long’ environment, mainly with regard to the household sector and financial intermediaries, and debates over how effectively macroprudential regulation’ can address them”
Presentation: Canada in a Low-for-Long Environment

            Marcel Fratzscher, DIW, “Monetary policy spillovers

            Sven Blöndal, OECD, “Marginal costs and benefits of extremely accommodating monetary policy”.


2. Fiscal Policy                                      10h30 to 12h


  • How have changes in fiscal policy stance, both expansionary and more recently contractionary policies, affected economic activity? Are there new estimates of multipliers based on recent experience?
  • How are the trade-offs between long-term fiscal consolidation needs and nearer-time concerns about activity being handled in your country?
  • What instruments of fiscal policy have been tried during the last five years, and what evidence has emerged regarding their effects? Have any innovations emerged?
  • How would restraining spending on social insurance programmes affect economic activity, both long term and short term?


            Coen Teulings, CPB (formerly), “Optimal fiscal policy

            Boris Cournède, OECD, “The choice of consolidation instruments in the face of conflicting objectives”.

            Jim Poterba, NBER, “New strategies for estimating fiscal multipliers”.


3. Post-crisis Structural Reform            12h to 13h


  • What are the most important priorities for structural reform in the current environment? Are there estimates of the likely effect of reforms on economic growth, and if not, how can the agenda for structural reform be developed?
  • Can structural reforms help near-term recovery, or only long-term growth?
  • How important are the spillover effects of structural reform? Are the effects of such reforms much larger when undertaken by one country in isolation than by multiple countries together?
  • What evidence is available on the past implementation of structural reforms in your nation, and how they affected aggregate output and the distribution of income?


            Fukunari Kimura, TCER, “Explosive development of production networks in East Asia and its implication for economic integration. Not only China (with probably too big fiscal stimulus) but also ASEAN and other East Asian countries have experienced rapid trade growth since 2008. This actually provides logical background on Abenomics in which TPP or RCEP is claimed to generate economic growth and employment in Japan”
Presentation: How to Grow with Developing Countries? Globalizing Corporate Activities and Domestic Economy in Japan

            Alain de Serres, OECD, “The structural reform agenda to boost long-term growth and its side-effects on near-term activity and other objectives


 Sandwich lunch from 13h to 13h30


4. European Adjustment                       13h30 to 15h


  • What are the requirements to re-establish internal and external equilibrium in euro area economies?”
  • How far in the economic adjustment process is the euro area? How can the adjustment be made less painful?
  • What institutional changes are required to make the euro area more financially stable?


            Karl Aiginger, WIFO, “Restarting growth in southern Europe in a period of fiscal consolidation

            Christophe Blot, OFCE, “European fiscal policy: the timing of fiscal consolidation”
Presentation: Is there an alternative strategy for reducing public debt by 2032 ?

            John Fitzgerald, ESRI, “Lessons from a painful adjustment (the Irish experience of last 5 years compared with the adjustment process in Spain and also with earlier adjustments undertaken in Europe during past crises)”
Presentation: Ireland and Spain in the Crisis: the Tortoise and the Hare?

            Guntram Wolff, Bruegel, “Bruegel’s evaluation of the Troika programmes”
Presentation: EU-IMF assistance to Euro Area countries: An Early Evaluation by Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Guntram B. Wolff

5. The Research Agenda (Closing Roundtable)            15h to 16h30
  • What are top priorities for economic research that can bear on policy design?
  • What work is your institute undertaking on these issues?


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