Myanmar

Myanmar is in need of a structural transformation from an agrarian economy to one based more on a mix of modern activities, including manufacturing and services. Modernising the agricultural sector by building linkages to complementary non-agricultural activities – an “agricultural value chain” approach – could set in motion this process of structural transformation. Furthermore, given Myanmar’s level of economic development, its large rural population and the weight of agriculture in the economy, a development strategy that puts agriculture and rural development at its core has the potential to make a significant positive impact for millions. This third report of the Multi-dimensional Review of Myanmar synthesises the findings and recommendations from the first two reports according to the following priorities as defined by stakeholders in Myanmar: supporting the agri-food sector’s ability to respond to market demand for quality products; introducing innovative models of delivering extension services and training to upgrade agronomic and technical skills; providing the conditions for a vibrant financial system that meet the needs of rural areas; strengthening land rights; engaging citizens in the policy making process; and managing and maximising the benefits of emigration from rural areas.

Building on an initial assessment of constraints to development in Myanmar (Volume 1), this second volume provides analysis and policy recommendations in three key areas: structural transformation, education and skills, and financing development. It finds that Myanmar faces a crucial few years to shape growth towards a higher, more sustainable and equitable trajectory. To succeed, it will require a transformation of the economy from an agrarian base reliant on small-scale agriculture at present towards a broad range of modern activities. Building up the right skills in the workforce will be essential to support this structural transformation. Myanmar’s transformation will also depend upon how effectively the country can mobilise and allocate the financial resources needed to support its development, which could amount to as much as an additional 5-10% of GDP on average over the next two decades.

This volume is the first of the OECD Development Pathways, a new series that looks at multiple development objectives beyond an exclusive focus on growth. The series starts with Myanmar, a country to be covered for the first time by the OECD. This initial assessment shows that Myanmar’s success in achieving stable and sustainable growth will depend vitally on its ability to develop the institutional and social capital necessary to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, to ensure the rule of law, to achieve environmentally sustainable development and to create an enabling environment for the private sector. To be sustainable, growth also needs to be more equitable and inclusive. Seizing the momentum created by the country’s opening and internal peace process will be imperative. Moreover, Myanmar’s increasing population provides a demographic dividend which needs to be reaped in the next couple of decades to boost the potential of the economy. After that, the population will begin ageing and Myanmar risks getting old before the incomes and living standards of its people can significantly improve.