Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor, May 2013

The world cereal supply situation is expected to improve in 2013/14 on higher production and larger than previously projected stocks. However, unfavorable weather is causing some delays in maize plantings in the US and undermining wheat growing conditions in the US and parts of Europe.

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Estimating the Constraints to Agricultural Trade of Developing Countries

Agricultural trade can be a powerful engine for economic growth, poverty reduction, and development. However, efforts by developing countries to expand their agricultural trade are often hampered by domestic supply-side constraints such as lack of trade-related infrastructure. This report looks at some of the most important of these constraints, and features case studies from Indonesia, Zambia and Mozambique.

World Wheat Price Volatility: Selected Scenario Analyses

This study provides quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China).

Stochastic Model Development and Price Volatility Analysis

Recent experience of highly turbulent markets has renewed interest in quantitative assessment of price volatility by stochastic simulations using the AGLINK-COSIMO model. Measuring the contribution of correlation of yield shocks to price volatility, this paper shows that correlation effects account for a significant portion of price volatility for coarse grains and wheat.

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Est-ce que la volatilité des prix des matières premières agricoles augmente ? Une étude historique

Ce rapport examine la question de savoir si la volatilité des prix des matières premières a sensiblement évolué avec la rapide montée des prix mondiaux en 2006-09, suivie par une baisse tout aussi marquée des prix de nombreuses matières premières.

Structural Change in Commodity Markets: Have Agricultural Markets Become Thinner?

Market thinness, where there are few buying or selling offers, can contribute to price volatility. Contrary to general assumptions, agricultural commodity markets have not become 'thinner', according to this study of trade in selected commodities from 1970 to 2010.

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International Agreements for Commodity Price Stabilisation: An Assessment

Low stocks to use ratios of recent years were one of the contributory factors to the grain price spike in 2007-08, says this paper on international stockholding arrangements with economic provisions for stabilising world agricultural commodity prices.

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) - Enhancing Market Transparency

OECD is contributing actively to the establishment of AMIS, an agricultural market information system called for by G20 Agriculture Ministers with the aim of addressing food price volatility through more timely, accurate and transparent information on global food markets.

Agricultural Trade and Employment in South Africa

Agriculture continues to create jobs in rural areas of South Africa, albeit mainly in low-wage occupations, and future trade liberalisation would increase employment in the agricultural sector, according to this study.

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