New OECD Insights blog exploring the relationship between international trade and agriculture.
Latest indications confirm the abundance of wheat supplies and improved production prospects for maize. The outlook for soybeans is equally positive. Although rice production prospects have been revised downward somewhat, availabilities remain ample. Against this background, international prices of AMIS crops generally weakened in September.
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The March 2014 Market Monitor for the Agricultural Market Information System
OECD is contributing to AMIS, an agricultural market information system aimed at addressing food price volatility through more timely, accurate and transparent information on global food markets.
Global agricultural production is expected to grow 1.5% a year on average over the coming decade, compared with annual growth of 2.1% between 2003 and 2012, according to the latest OECD-FAO agricultural market projections for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of featured commodities.
Agricultural trade can be a powerful engine for economic growth, poverty reduction, and development. However, efforts by developing countries to expand their agricultural trade are often hampered by domestic supply-side constraints such as lack of trade-related infrastructure. This report looks at some of the most important of these constraints, and features case studies from Indonesia, Zambia and Mozambique.
This study provides quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China).
Recent experience of highly turbulent markets has renewed interest in quantitative assessment of price volatility by stochastic simulations using the AGLINK-COSIMO model. Measuring the contribution of correlation of yield shocks to price volatility, this paper shows that correlation effects account for a significant portion of price volatility for coarse grains and wheat.
Rio+20 est confrontée à des défis que le Sommet de la Terre de Rio n’aurait pas pu anticiper : un écart grandissant entre les riches et les pauvres, une crise économique mondiale, et quelque deux milliards de personnes de plus qui, en 2050, seront tributaires des ressources naturelles.
Ce rapport examine la question de savoir si la volatilité des prix des matières premières a sensiblement évolué avec la rapide montée des prix mondiaux en 2006-09, suivie par une baisse tout aussi marquée des prix de nombreuses matières premières.