Environmental indicators, modelling and outlooks

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030: Key Results

 

Climate change | Biodiversity loss | Health impacts | Water scarcity
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 | How to obtain this publication
 

Climate change

  • GHG emission growth: By 2030 world GHG emissions are projected to grow by 37% and by 52% to 2050 (compared to 2005 levels), if no new policy action is introduced (i.e. under the OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline).
  • OECD emissions:  Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from OECD countries would be expected to increase by 23% by 2030 and by 26% to 2050.
  • BRIC emissions: GHG emissions from these 4 rapidly industrialising countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are expected to grow by 46% to 2030, and in total would roughly equal emissions from the 30 OECD countries combined by 2030.
  • With no new policies, world GDP is expected to double (grow by nearly 100%) to 2030 and to triple in size to 2050. But it would only cost about 0.5% of that GDP in 2030, and 2.5% in 2050, to achieve the ambitious climate goal of stabilising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at 450ppm. Under an optimal scenario (i.e. using least-cost policies, starting immediately, with all countries and sectors participating), this could be achieved using a global tax on all GHG emissions starting at just over 2 US$ per tonne of CO2-equivalent, and increasing to over 150 US$ per tonne in 2050.
  • Total greenhouse gas emissions (by region), 1970-2050

 

Biodiversity loss

  • Agriculture will continue to be the source of greatest pressure on biodiversity at the global level to 2030. To meet increasing demands for food and biofuels, world agricultural land use will need to expand by an estimated 10% to 2030.
  • Unless new policies are put in place, the area of mature forests would decrease by a further 68% in South Asia, 26% in China, 24% in Africa and by about 20% in Eastern Europe, Australia and New Zealand by 2030. This translates to more than 1.2 million km2 of mature forests lost in Africa in this timeframe. 
  • Figure 9.2. Sources of losses in mean species abundance to 2030

 

Health impacts

  • Air pollutants linked to respiratory illnesses: Without new policy, the number of premature deaths per million inhabitants caused by ground-level ozone would quadruple worldwide by 2030 compared to today’s levels.
  • The number of premature deaths per million inhabitants linked to PM10 (fine particulates) could double to 2030 per million inhabitants, increasing to over 3 million premature deaths per year, and with an estimated loss of more than 25 million years of life (i.e. Disability Adjusted Life Years – DALYs) in 2030.
  • Figure 12.2 - Premature deaths from urban ozone exposure for 2000 and 2030

 

Water scarcity

 

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OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

 

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