Climate change

Documents on Economic Modelling and Climate Change


OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030:

A Contribtion to the "Purchasing Power Parity vs. Market Exchange Rates for use in Long-Term Scenarios" Discussion
Market Exchange Rates (MER) balance the demand and supply for international currencies, while Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rates capture the differences between the cost of a given bundle of goods and services in different countries. When undertaking multi-country analysis of environmental issues (such as climate change) that includes different currencies, a decision has to be made as to whether to use PPP or MER in the analytical framework. The distinction between them is particularly germane in inter-temporal studies that postulate future scenarios. PPPs are generally favoured for their closer link to welfare, but MERS are necessarily the basis of international trade, so it is difficult to choose between them. Some authors have noted some empirical regularity between them and have sought to exploit this to avoid choosing between PPP and MER. In this paper, it is shown that such ad hoc adjustments are not necessary when structural changes are accounted for.

STI Working Paper 2003/15: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods
This paper explores trade in goods by creating an indicator that estimates CO2 emissions related to domestic demand for 24 countries (responsible for 80% of global CO2 emissions) as a complement to the more common emission indicator used in the Kyoto Protocol.

A Multi-gas Assessment of the Kyoto Protocol

This paper extends previous OECD analysis to cover also emissions of methane and nitrous oxide and thereby expands coverage to some 80 per cent of GHG emissions covered by the Protocol. The inclusion of these gases reduces the estimated economic costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, if each Annex I country or region takes individual action to respect its emission target under the Protocol, real income may on average be a third of a per cent lower by the target period as compared with half a per cent lower in the previous analysis, that covered only carbon dioxide.

Instruments and Technologies for Climate Change Policy: An Integrated Energy and Material Systems Modelling Approach

Most greenhouse gas mitigation policies are targeted towards changing energy fuel mixes or reducing total energy use, and are thus focussed on particular sectors, activities or technological improvements. This study investigates the potential gains in efficiency and effectiveness that can be realised through implementing greenhouse gas mitigation policies that are aimed instead at the broadest possible array of technological adaptations throughout the economy, and that equalise the marginal emission abatement costs. Finally, the study indicates that changing the targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions (i.e. without prior warning) may lead to significant costs to society because of interdependencies between the available technological options.

The Three-Year Project on Sustainable Development: A Progress Report / Le projet triennal de l'OCDE sur le développement durable : rapport d'étape

Economic Modelling of Climate Change: OECD Workshop Report

Climate Policy without Tears: CGE-Based Ancillary Benefits Estimates for Chile

What interest do developing countries have in limiting the growth of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? Answering this question is crucial to moving international climate policy negotiations forward. The primary benefits for individual countries of GHG abatement remain highly uncertain and, in any case, long-term in nature. The costs, on the other hand, are near-term.


Action Against Climate Change: The Kyoto Protocol and Beyond
October 1999

Climate change is an increasing concern across the world. In 1997, a number of countries, including most OECD countries, agreed the Kyoto Protocol, which sets targets for future emissions of greenhouse gases that drive climate change. But the Kyoto Protocol left many decisions to be made, and while these are being discussed the clock ticks and the date for meeting the targets draws closer. Uncertainties are even larger as to policy requirements over the longer term. The Kyoto targets in themselves will do little to avert climate change but are best seen as a first step towards ambitious world-wide action. This puts the focus on how to achieve world-wide consensus for taking action and the economic impacts such action may have. Whatever action is taken, and on the basis of available scientific evidence, some climate change may take place in any case, raising questions about its impacts and how best to adjust. This publication presents analysis which bears on such questions as well as others in the climate change debate. It does not purport to have the final answers, but is aimed to inform a major debate. OECD Initiative on Sustainable Development Along with its companion volume National Climate Policies and the Kyoto Protocol (1999), this book is part of the OECD three-year initiative on Sustainable Development, launched in April 1998 in response to the mandate from OECD Ministers.