Employment

Policy challenges for the next 50 years

 

Presentations

Policy Notes & Papers

 

 

OECD 50-year global scenario: Shifting gear

Les grands enjeux des 50 prochaines années, un nouveau virage à prendre

今後50年間の政策課題

 

OECD 50-year global scenario: Policy challenges

OECD 50-year global scenario: Trade and specialisation patterns

 

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More than five years after the onset of the financial and economic crisis the world economy is still weak, with growth in most key regions remaining below pre-crisis levels.

As the effects of the crisis eventually subsides, the coming 50 years will likely see a major shift of economic balance towards emerging economies, particularly those in Asia, with the share in world GDP of non-OECD countries rising well beyond that of the current OECD area by 2060.

In the period to 2060, global growth prospects seem mediocre compared with the past, with GDP in the OECD and the emerging G20-countries likely to grow by 2.7% in 2010-2060, compared to 3.4% in 1996-2010.

Interactive data visualisations

Growth will slow and economic activity will shift, with skills being crucial and wage inequality rising

Global growth will slow from 3.6% in 2010 - 2020 to 2.4% in 2050 - 2060 -- due to ageing and gradual deceleration in emerging economies -- and will be increasingly driven by innovation and investment in skills.

 
 

The global economic balance will continue to shift towards the current non-OECD area, which will have an economic structure and exports increasingly similar to those of the OECD. Global integration is likely to continue, but at a slower pace. Still, increases in trade intensity will be significant, and by 2060 euro area exports to Asia and emerging economies may be equivalent to 15% of GDP and similar in size to trade within the euro zone.

More interactive data visualisations

Further reading

Relevant Economics Department Working Papers:

>> 1112: New evidence on the determinants of industrial specialisation
by Åsa Johansson and Eduardo Olaberria

>> 1128 What explains the volume and composition of trade? Industrial evidence from a panel of countries
by Åsa Johansson, Przemyslaw Kowalski, Eduardo Olaberría and Dario Pellegrino

>> 1136 Long-term patterns of trade and specialisation
by Åsa Johansson and Eduardo Olaberria

>> 1139 Gross earning inequalities in OECD countries and major non-member economies: determinants and future scenarios
by Henrik Braconier and Jenifer Ruiz Valenzuela

>> 1140 International migration: the relationship with economic and policy factors in the home and destination
Ben Westmore

>> 1141 The demand for skills 1995-2008: a global supply chain perspective
by Bart Los, Marcel P. Timmer and Gaaitzen J. De Vries

>> Growth prospects and fiscal requirements over the long term

>> Economics department working papers

 

 

 

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