The task can be approached through three components/stages:
i) Identify and develop measures encapsulating the five scenario dimensions:
To be manageable, the number of measures will be limited (about 2-3 for each of the dimensions, giving approximately 20-25 measures in all against which progress would be assessed towards the different scenarios).
ii) Provide evidence on each of these measures: this will involve a mix of international data, national statistics, and the "softer" informed judgements unsupported by quantitative data. The mix will be different in each country. The results will not, therefore, be firm comparisons, but primarily for use within the country itself.
iii) "Read" the results for their fit with each scenario. This might best be done through a "manual" for matching and decoding the evidence in relation to the six scenarios.
It will be more feasible to ascertain correspondence to the scenarios through a single set of measures for all six, with a manual or coding device for ascertaining the "fit" with each, than it would be to develop different measures for all dimensions of each scenario.
After the February 2003 Forum, it is intended to refine the analytical instrument that can begin to be used with country data.