Economic surveys and country surveillance

Economic Survey of India 2007

 

 

Contents | Executive summary | How to obtain this publication | Additional info

Published on 9 October 2007. 

An Economic Assessment of selected, globally important non-member countries is prepared as part of the Organisation's outreach on a case-by-case basis. The focus is on the macroeconomic and structural developments which most likely constitute barriers for the long-term sustainability of growth and therefore require policy attention. Read more about how Economic Assessments are prepared. The OECD's conclusions concerning the main economic challenges faced by India are available by clicking on each chapter heading below.

See the press release and bookmark this page: www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/India.

 

Presentation of the OECD Economic Survey of India 2007, by Angel Gurría, OECD Secretary-General, New Delhi, Tuesday 9 October 2007

Contents                                                                                                                                          

 

Chapter 1: India’s key challenges to sustaining high growth

The Indian economy has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past two decades. The growth rate of average incomes has increased from 1¼ per cent prior to 1980 to 7% by 2006. Between 1999 and 2004, the absolute number of people living under the national poverty line has fallen for the first time since Independence. Faster growth has been brought about by a paradigm shift in economic polices that has opened the economy to foreign trade and markedly reduced direct tax rates and government influence over most investment decisions. Despite this favourable performance, there is still much room for improving policy settings to further raise growth potential. This chapter first looks at India’s past reforms and the main sources of its improved growth performance and then identifies a number of key challenges that could make growth faster, more sustainable and more even across the country: i) making goods and service markets more competitive; ii) enhancing employment in the formal sector through broadranging labour market reforms; iii) further liberalising the banking sector; iv) improving public finances to achieve more rapid growth through a more ambitious fiscal consolidation, reducing subsidies and further reducing tax distortions; v) improving infrastructure and facilitating urbanisation by involving private players more intensely; and vi) upgrading the quality of educational outcomes through institutional reforms.

 

Chapter 2: India’s growth pattern and obstacles to higher growthChapter 2: India’s growth pattern and obstacles to higher grow

India’s growth performance has improved significantly over the past 20 years, but it has been uneven across industries and states. While some service industries, notably the information and communications technology (ICT) sector, have become highly competitive in world markets – yielding considerable gains for employees and investors – manufacturing industries have lagged and improved their performance only recently. A divergence in performance has taken place, with firms in those states and sectors with the best institutions gaining, and those in the more tightly regulated states and sectors falling further behind. As a result, the competitive landscape is uneven across sectors and states and a high degree of concentration continues in different industries. While this is partly the result of the legacy of licensing, change has been politically difficult, making it harder for the manufacturing sector than for the service sector to expand. The need for further institutional reforms is urgent, focusing on product and labour market regulations at the central and state levels.

 

Chapter 3: Reforming India’s product and service markets

The degree of competition in product markets has been found to be an important determinant of economic growth in both developed and developing countries. This chapter uses the OECD’s indicators of product market regulation to assess the extent to which the regulatory environment in India is supportive of competition in markets for goods and services. The results indicate that although liberalisation has improved the regulatory environment to international best practices in some areas, the overall level of product market regulation is still relatively restrictive. In addition, estimating the product market regulation indicators for 21 Indian states shows that the relatively more liberal states have higher labour productivity, attract more foreign direct investment, and have a larger share of employment in the private formal sector in comparison to the relatively more restrictive states. The chapter goes on to review various aspects of India’s product market regulation and suggests a number of policy initiatives that would improve the degree to which competitive market forces are able to operate.

  

Chapter 4: Improving the performance of the labour market

Over the past decade, labour market outcomes have improved in India, with net employment rising markedly for the economy as a whole. However, these gains have arisen primarily in the unorganised and informal sectors of the economy, where productivity and wages are generally much lower than in the formal organised sector. It is only India’s organised sector that is subject to labour market regulation, and here employment has fallen. The role of employment protection legislation in affecting employment outcomes is controversial both in the OECD area and in India. This chapter looks at the impact of employment protection legislation and related regulation on the dynamics of employment in the organised sector of the economy, using newly constructed measures of national regulation and state labour reforms. We find that while reforms have taken some of the bite out of core labour laws, more comprehensive reforms are needed to address the distortions that have emerged.

                         

Chapter 5. Tax competition: How to remain competitive?

Chapter 5: Reforming the financial system

This chapter examines the performance of India’s financial sector and compares its structure to that of other emerging economies. The financial sector went through a period of considerable re-organisation during the last 15 years. New regulators were introduced for all sectors of the market and this has boosted the development of highly efficient equity and commodity markets. The health of the banking sector has also improved and competition within the sector has increased. Nonetheless, costs remain high in a sector that is still dominated by public sector banks. The corporate bond market is still underdeveloped, as is the foreign exchange market. Considerable scope exists for improving efficiency in the financial sector by opening it to more foreign direct investment and removing a number of regulatory constraints that impede the development of a full set of financial markets.

 

Chapter 6: Improving the fiscal system

This chapter examines areas of government spending, taxation and fiscal federalism where further reforms are desirable to reduce economic distortions and improve the provision of public services. As to  government spending, it finds that a large share is used to subsidise commercial undertakings, agriculture and food distribution and that there is much room to improve the quality of spending and target it better to reduce poverty. On taxes, which have undergone major reforms since the early 1990s, it points to the large number of loopholes and suggests that a broadening of the tax bases would allow further reductions in tax rates and make the system simpler and more efficient. Reforms of indirect taxes should focus on creating a common market within India so that goods can move between states without border controls. India’s federal structure has led to a well-developed system of tax-sharing and transfers, both through constitutionally empowered bodies and delivered through the annual budget. Overall, this transfer system has worked well; moving resources towards the poorest states, but the system has become very complex and, in the past, weakened fiscal discipline. Furthermore, it has not been able to create an effective local government system; this would be important for improving accountability and responsiveness to citizens’ needs as three-quarters of the population live in states with over 50 million inhabitants.

 

Chapter 7: Removing infrastructure bottlenecks

With high rates of economic growth and low public sector investment, India’s infrastructure is in short supply and potentially a major constraint on future growth. To alleviate fiscal constraints and improve infrastructure productivity, the government is turning increasingly to the private sector to finance and run infrastructure projects. In some infrastructure sectors in which the regulatory environment is conducive to private sector involvement, performance has improved significantly. However, although infrastructure policy is moving in the right direction in some sectors, there are still a number of ways in which the regulatory environment could be improved further. This chapter outlines a range of policy initiatives that would increase private sector participation and improve infrastructure service delivery to international standards. It begins by discussing the role of public-private partnerships in the provision of infrastructure services before moving on to review the regulatory environment in a number of infrastructure sectors with a focus on regulatory settings that constrain competition.

 

Chapter 8: Improving human capital formation

The provision of high-quality education and health care to all of the population is considered a core element of public policy in most countries. In India, the government is active in both education and health but the private sector also plays an important role, notably for heath, and to a lesser extent in education. At present, the quality and quantity of the outputs from education, and also form public health care, are holding back the process of economic development. Steps are being taken to draw more children into primary education and the chapter considers ways to keep children in school. The chapter also considers institutional changes that may help to improve the performance of the educational system and so boost human capital formation.       

 

How to obtain this publication                                                                                      

The Policy Brief (pdf format) can be downloaded in English. It contains the OECD assessment and recommendations.The complete edition of the Economic survey of India 2007 is available from:

Additional information                                                                                                  

 

For further information please contact the India Desk at the OECD Economics Department at eco.survey@oecd.org.  The OECD Secretariat’s report was prepared in the Economics Department by Richard Herd, Paul Conway and Sean Dougherty, under the supervision of Willi Leibfritz. Research assistance was provided by Thomas Chalaux.

 

 

 

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