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Over the last four years we have lived and worked under the impact of the greatest economic crisis of our lifetimes. Recent actions in Europe have cleared a bit the fog but the confidence in the markets is still shaky and the long-term growth perspective of Europe is muted.
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Public debt in the OECD area passed annual GDP in 2011 and is still rising. This paper was prepared for the Reserve Bank of India Second International Research Conference 2012: “Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt and Financial Stability: The New Trilemma”, 1-2 February, 2012 in Mumbai, India
Switzerland has made a broadly balanced recovery from the economic crisis, but slower activity in Europe and pressures on the Swiss franc weigh on the near-term outlook, according to the OECD Secretary-General.
Given current levels of uncertainty, it is quite a challenge to discuss the outlook for the global economy in the months to come. But I will take the risk, and share the OECD’s assessment of the forces shaping the near-term outlook, the risks surrounding our projections and the major policy challenges facing many OECD countries.
With the Czech economy’s export-driven recovery slowing, swift implementation of new reforms is needed to ensure sustainable, inclusive long-term growth and better resilience to external shocks, according to OECD's Angel Gurría.
Economic recovery appears to have come close to a halt in the major industrialised economies, with falling household and business confidence affecting both world trade and employment, according to Angel Gurría. Growth remains strong in most emerging economies, albeit at a more moderate pace.
Greece is in deep crisis after years of fiscal laxity and weak structural reforms. To return to sustainable growth, the fiscal consolidation and product and labour market reforms underway should continue, be closely monitored, with the burden of the adjustment fairly shared, according to the OECD Secretary-General.
The road ahead will not be easy, though: financial market concerns about sovereign debt are extending to a growing number of countries and now they threaten to include Belgium. Thus fiscal sustainability and higher growth are the backbone of our main recommendations in this Survey. With a public debt at 97% of GDP, a renewed and sustained effort to prefund ageing costs is needed, including revisiting intergovernmental prefunding
Austria should seize the opportunity provided by its robust, export-led recovery to strengthen spending reforms and reinforce domestic drivers of economic growth, said Angel Gurría.
India’s economy has ranked among the best performers over the past decade, and poverty has been falling faster than in many other emerging economies. India now has the opportunity to move towards sustained and socially inclusive double-digit growth if the right policies are put in place, according to the OECD Secretary-General.