Publications & Documents


  • 11-June-2013

    English

    Policy determinants of school outcomes under model uncertainty: evidence from South Africa

    In this paper we assess the determinants of secondary school outcomes in South Africa. We use Bayesian Averaging Model techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory variables in order to minimize the risk of omitted variable bias.

  • 11-June-2013

    English

    The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylised fact

    This paper puts the original Reinhart-Rogoff dataset, made public by Herndon et al. (2013), to a formal econometric test to pin down debt thresholds endogenously. We show that the nonlinear relation from debt to growth is not very robust.

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  • 11-June-2013

    English

    Challenges to sustain Poland’s growth model

    Notwithstanding a very strong economic performance over the past decade or so, Poland’s per capita income is substantially lower in comparison with the United States and per capita income growth will be sharply slowing down over the coming decades under the scenario of gradual policy changes mostly because of population ageing.

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  • 10-June-2013

    English

    Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), OECD, June 2013

    Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to moderate improvements in growth in most major economies.

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  • 6-June-2013

    English

    Evidence-Based Economic Policy in the Aftermath of the Crisis

    Meeting of National Economic Research Organisations, OECD Headquarters, 21 June 2013

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  • 5-June-2013

    English

    Putting Green Growth at the Heart of Development

    Green growth is vital to secure a brighter, more sustainable future for developing countries. Developing countries will pay a high price for failing to tackle local and global environmental threats because they are more dependent on natural resources and are more vulnerable to resources scarcity and natural disasters.

    This book presents evidence that green growth is the only way to sustain growth and development over the long-term. Green growth does not replace sustainable development, but is a means to achieve it. Green growth values natural assets, which are essential to the well-being and livelihoods of people in developing countries, and if policies are designed to respond to the needs of the poorest, green growth can contribute to poverty reduction and social equity.

    Building on experience with green growth policies in developing countries and extensive consultations with developing country stakeholders, this report provides a twin-track approach with agendas for national and international action. It responds to developing country concerns about the technical challenges arising from early efforts to “go green” and documents a wealth of examples from developing countries. Green growth objectives and policies will need to be mainstreamed into every government objective and most importantly, into national budgets. Green growth policies can use untapped opportunities to boost domestic fiscal revenues and attract quality investment for years to come. International co-operation is needed to help mitigate the short-term costs that may be associated with pursuing green growth. International flows of money, trade and technology know-how is vital to encourage pursuit of green growth in developing countries.

  • 4-June-2013

    English

    Consumer Prices, OECD - Updated: 4 June 2013

    Consumer prices in the OECD area rose by 1.3% in the year to April 2013, the lowest annual inflation rate since October 2009. Energy prices fell to 1.3% in the year to April, compared with an increase of 0.9% in the year to March. On the other hand, annual food price inflation rose by 2.0% in April, up from 1.7% in March. Excluding food and energy, the OECD annual inflation rate slowed to 1.4% in April, compared with 1.6% in March.

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  • 31-May-2013

    English

    Reforming agriculture and promoting Japan's integration in the world economy

    The problems of Japanese agriculture – in particular low productivity and the prevalence of part-time farmers and small plots have been evident for the past 50 years.

  • 31-May-2013

    English

    Inequality and poverty in the United States: public policies for inclusive growth

    Income inequality and relative poverty in the United States are among the highest in the OECD and have substantially increased over the past decades. These developments have been associated with a number of other worrying statistics, including low intergenerational social mobility and weak real income growth for many households.

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  • 31-May-2013

    English

    Fiscal federalism and its impact on economic activity, public investment and the performance of educational systems

    Intergovernmental fiscal frameworks usually reflect fundamental societal choices and history and are not foremost geared towards achieving economic policy objectives. Yet, like most institutional arrangements, fiscal relations affect the behaviour of firms, households and governments and thereby economic activity.

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