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Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself.
This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it essentially resulted from a large increase in the unemployment gap.
Despite sound policies and institutions, Danish productivity has grown modestly over the past decade, both historically and in relation to other countries, contributing to weak economic growth and an erosion in competitiveness.
Denmark’s green growth strategy focuses on moving the energy system away from fossil fuels and investing in green technologies, while limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE).
Portugal has started on a long road of economic adjustment to boost growth and reduce debt. A range of structural reforms are needed to restore fiscal sustainability, improve labour market performance and rebalance the economy towards tradables.
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) point to an easing of economic activity in most major OECD economies and a more marked slowdown in most major non-OECD economies.
In this paper we develop a simple analytical framework to analyze “good” and “bad equilibria” in public-debt and growth dynamics.
Real GDP growth in the OECD area increased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2012, compared with 0.3% growth in the previous quarter.
Europe is putting in place a new system of fiscal rules following the euro area sovereign debt crisis and decades of rising government to debt-to-GDP ratios. These include the so-called "six pack" to upgrade the Stability and Growth Pact to a new Treaty incorporating the "fiscal compact".