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Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, show that the loss of momentum is likely to persist in the coming quarters in most major OECD and non-OECD economies.
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the G20 area slowed to 0.6% in the second quarter of 2012 compared with 0.7% in the first quarter. This marks the third consecutive quarter of slowing growth in the G20 area but masks diverging patterns across economies.
Impressive productivity performance during the last decades has weakened since 2007, reflecting the 2008-09 recession but also a poor performance in important sectors, like the information and communication technology sector.
This paper examines how import penetration affects firms' productivity growth taking into account the heterogeneity in firms' distance to the efficiency frontier and country differences in product market regulation.
The global economy has slowed, with key European countries entering a recession that is now impacting worldwide, the OECD said in its latest Interim Economic Assessment.Interim Economic Assessment
Provisional estimates show that quarter-on-quarter growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECD area slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter of 2012, compared with 0.5% in the previous quarter.
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) continue to point to an easing of economic activity in most major OECD economies and slowdowns in most major non-OECD economies.
In this paper we develop a simple analytical framework to analyze “good” and “bad equilibria” in public-debt and growth dynamics.
Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself.
This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it essentially resulted from a large increase in the unemployment gap.