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This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060,
seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure, as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by extending the country coverage.
Well-functioning judicial systems play a crucial role in determining economic performance – notably by guaranteeing the security of property rights and the enforcement of contracts – but not all countries’ judiciaries operate at the same level of efficiency.
Unit labour costs (ULCs) in OECD countries decreased by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2013, compared with a rise of 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012. This was driven by lower growth of labour compensation per unit of labour input (0.3% compared with 0.9% in the previous quarter), and increased labour productivity growth (0.4% compared with minus 0.2%).
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the G20 area grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2013 compared with 0.6% in the previous quarter, according to preliminary estimates. However, the aggregate G20 GDP growth rate continues to mask diverging patterns across the world’s largest economies.
In this paper we assess the determinants of secondary school outcomes in South Africa. We use Bayesian Averaging Model techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory variables in order to minimize the risk of omitted variable bias.
This paper puts the original Reinhart-Rogoff dataset, made public by Herndon et al. (2013), to a formal econometric test to pin down debt thresholds endogenously. We show that the nonlinear relation from debt to growth is not very robust.
Notwithstanding a very strong economic performance over the past decade or so, Poland’s per capita income is substantially lower in comparison with the United States and per capita income growth will be sharply slowing down over the coming decades under the scenario of gradual policy changes mostly because of population ageing.
Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to moderate improvements in growth in most major economies.
Meeting of National Economic Research Organisations, OECD Headquarters, 21 June 2013
New Zealand’s key challenges are to achieve sustainable and equitable growth while reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Policies are on the right track, and reforms should focus on improving productivity and the distribution of skills.