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The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE).
Portugal has started on a long road of economic adjustment to boost growth and reduce debt. A range of structural reforms are needed to restore fiscal sustainability, improve labour market performance and rebalance the economy towards tradables.
More balanced and higher long-term growth calls for strengthened external competitiveness and greater private saving through adjustments in macroeconomic policy and ambitious labour market and educational reforms.
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) point to an easing of economic activity in most major OECD economies and a more marked slowdown in most major non-OECD economies.
In this paper we develop a simple analytical framework to analyze “good” and “bad equilibria” in public-debt and growth dynamics.
Real GDP growth in the OECD area increased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2012, compared with 0.3% growth in the previous quarter.
Europe is putting in place a new system of fiscal rules following the euro area sovereign debt crisis and decades of rising government to debt-to-GDP ratios. These include the so-called "six pack" to upgrade the Stability and Growth Pact to a new Treaty incorporating the "fiscal compact".
The Spanish economy experienced significantly weaker labour productivity growth than other OECD economies and failed to catch up with the most advanced economies in the period 1996-2007. In recent years labour productivity growth has accelerated, but this recovery is likely to be due to cyclical and temporary factors.
The United States should do more to foster innovation and provide more equitable access to high-quality education in order to maintain its status as the world's most vibrant and productive economy, according to OECD's latest Economic Survey of the United States.
Strengthening education outcomes and innovation and putting public finances on a sustainable path would increase potential economic growth in the United States and, insofar as reforms increase equity in education opportunity and consolidation measures are progressive, reduce economic inequality.