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11-February-2014

English, PDF, 316kb

OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a Post Mortem (pdf)

This note discusses OECD forecast performance over the period 2007 12. It focuses on the lessons that can be learned from cross-country differences in growth forecast errors and the changes to forecasting models and procedures that have been prompted by the experience of the crisis.

11-February-2014

English

Economic crisis provides lessons for new approaches to forecasting, says OECD

Extreme volatility during the global financial crisis complicated economic forecasting, leading to large errors that underline the need for better modelling methods and new approaches for making and presenting projections.

Also Available

18-November-2013

English

Economic Outlook Special Chapters

Special Chapters of the OECD Economic Outlook.

Related Documents

29-May-2013

English

Global economy advancing but pace of recovery varies, says OECD Economic Outlook

The global economy is moving forward, but divergence between countries and regions reflects the uneven progress made toward recovery from the economic crisis, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. Historically high unemployment remains the most serious challenge facing governments.

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28-March-2013

English

Global economy is improving but Europe lags behind, says OECD

Global economic activity is picking up, but the continuing crisis in the euro area is delaying a meaningful recovery, the OECD said in its latest Interim Economic Assessment.

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14-March-2013

English

Policy options to durably resolve euro area imbalances

A simple econometric framework is presented linking current account balances of euro area countries to intra and extra euro area competitiveness, cyclical positions, fiscal positions and the oil price.

6-March-2013

English

The price of oil – will it start rising again?

Following a sharp drop amidst the global economic crisis and a subsequent recovery, the spot price of crude oil has been broadly stable for the past couple of years. This paper discusses the factors that drive oil demand and supply and, hence, the price of the resource.

10-January-2013

English

Strengthening Euro Area banks

Big changes are needed to strengthen the capital positions of euro area banks. European banks remain at the heart of the euro area crisis. Despite actions to strengthen banks and build a banking union, confidence in the euro area banking system remains weak, and is likely to remain so until underlying concerns over low capitalisation of some banks are addressed.

11-December-2012

English

Euro area labour costs converging, but imbalances persist

The euro area crisis finds its roots in the credit booms seen in many countries following the introduction of the euro in 1999. Easy credit led to strong growth in a range of sectors, notably housing, as well as higher levels of public spending. Inflation in these over-heating economies was higher than the euro area as a whole. Rising prices led to rising costs and a loss of international competitiveness.

29-November-2012

English

Sources & Methods of the OECD Economic Outlook

Description of economic and statistical concepts, data sources and various techniques curently used by the Department in undertaking its assessment of global economics.

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