OECD Economic Outlook and Interim Economic Outlook

Watch the press conference (November 2018)

General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation

The expansion is set to persist over the next two years, with global GDP projected to rise by close to 4% in 2018 and 2019. Growth in the OECD area is set to remain around 2½ per cent per annum, helped by fiscal easing in many economies, and will strengthen to close to 5% elsewhere.

Read the General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation

Decoupling of wages from productivity: what implications for public policies?

Several OECD countries have been grappling not only with slow productivity growth but have additionally experienced a slowdown in real average wage growth relative to productivity growth, which has been reflected in a falling share of wages in GDP. At the same time, growth in low and middle wages has been lagging behind average wage growth, contributing to rising wage inequality. Together, these developments have resulted in the decoupling of growth in low and middle wages from growth in productivity.

Decoupling of wages from productivity: What implications for public policies? (pdf)

Findings

  • On average across 24 OECD countries, real median wage growth has decoupled from productivity growth, but there are large differences across countries.
  • Global developments in technology and trade have put downward pressure on real median wages relative to productivity, but domestic policies and institutions may explain large differences in decoupling across countries.
  • There is some evidence for “winner-takes-most” dynamics as labour shares at the technological frontier have decreased and between-firm wage dispersion has increased.

Policy lessons

Significant decoupling in the OECD...

.

...but large differences across countries...

.

...that partly reflects differences in firm dynamics...

.

...as well as public policies and institutions

.

En español y portugues: textos seleccionados

Slideshow

Algunos países

Español

 
Argentina Costa Rica
Brasil España
Chile México
Colombia > Portugal
   

Português

 
Portugal Brasil

Evaluación general

Evaluación general de la situación économica

La expansión mundial ha tocado techo. Se prevé que el crecimiento del PIB mundial disminuya progresivamente del 3,7% en 2018 al entorno del 3½ por ciento en 2019 y 2020, globalmente en línea con el crecimiento potencial subyacente de la producción mundial. A corto plazo, las políticas adoptadas y el fuerte crecimiento del empleo siguen sosteniendo la demanda interna. Sin embargo, las previsiones prevén políticas macroeconómicas cada vez menos acomodaticias, dificultades derivadas de las tensiones comerciales, condiciones financieras más restrictivas y precios del petróleo más elevados.

Statistical Annex

The annex tables are grouped into 8 categories and are available below in Excel. They can also be downloaded from the Economic Outlook online database.

Compare your country: Data visualisation

Social Media

Blog Posts on the Economic Outlook

@OECDeconomy

ECO Newsletter

Register here for the OECD Economy Newsletter to receive the latest information by email regarding future releases of the Outlook and related products.

Follow us on twitter @oecdeconomy 

Previous releases

  Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2018 

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 1

Global Economic Outlook, May 2018

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Policy challenges from closer international trade and financial integration
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, March 2018


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2017 Issue 2

Global Economic Outlook November 2017

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Resilience in a time of high debt
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2017


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2017 Issue 1

Global Economic Outlook, June 2017

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
How to make trade work for all
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, March 2017


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 2

Global Economic Outlook, November 2016

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Using the fiscal levers to escape the low-growth trap
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2016


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 1

Global Economic Outlook, June 2016

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Promoting productivty and equality: a twin challenge
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, February 2016


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2015 Issue 2

Global Economic Outlook, November 2015

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Cool policy: climate change mitigation supporting growth
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2015


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2015 Issue 1

Global Economic Outlook, June 2015

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Lifting investment for higher sustainable growth
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, March 2015


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 2

Global Economic Outlook, November 2014

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Versions prior to November 2014 can be found here.

>> See also Economic Policy Papers, produced in the context of the work carried out on the two regular titles, OECD Economic Outlook and Going for Growth.