Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts
Interim Economic Outlook
Just released: the OECD Interim Economic Outlook
The expansion may now have peaked. Global growth is projected to settle at 3.7% in 2018 and 2019, marginally below pre-crisis norms, with downside risks intensifying. Growth has become less broad-based, with prospects diverging across the major economies, especially among the emerging-market economies.
Economic Outlook Special Chapters
> Resilience in a time of high debt
Indebtedness of households and non-financial corporations in many advanced and emerging market economies is high. In many countries, it is continuing to rise. Highly indebted countries may be vulnerable to financial and real shocks, and such indebtedness may undermine the sustainability of growth in the medium term.
> How to make trade work for all
International trade has been a powerful engine of global economic growth and convergence in living standards between countries. Trade liberalisation has contributed to large economic gains of emerging market economies and to poverty decline.
> Using the fiscal levers to escape the low-growth trap
In the context where public debt has reached high levels in most OECD countries, it is important to assess the extent of countries' fiscal space and the temporary deficit increase they can afford to run. A rethink is needed for how the fiscal policy stance should be evaluated, particularly in the context where very low sovereign interest rates provide more fiscal space.
Economic consequences of Brexit
> The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision
Membership of the European Union has contributed to the economic prosperity of the United Kingdom. Uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum has already started to weaken growth in the United Kingdom.