Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts
The expansion may now have peaked. Global growth is projected to settle at 3.7% in 2018 and 2019, marginally below pre-crisis norms, with downside risks intensifying. Growth has become less broad-based, with prospects diverging across the major economies, especially among the emerging-market economies.
Next full release of the Economic Outlook on 21 November 2018
The Long View
> The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060
Slowing global growth, limited income convergence and rising fiscal pressures – this is the outlook for the world economy in the new OECD long-term baseline projection. But structural policy reforms can brighten the outlook substantially in all countries, as illustrated in a number of alternative scenarios.
> Resilience in a time of high debt
Indebtedness of households and non-financial corporations in many advanced and emerging market economies is high. In many countries, it is continuing to rise. Highly indebted countries may be vulnerable to financial and real shocks, and such indebtedness may undermine the sustainability of growth in the medium term.
> Using the fiscal levers to escape the low-growth trap
In the context where public debt has reached high levels in most OECD countries, it is important to assess the extent of countries' fiscal space and the temporary deficit increase they can afford to run. A rethink is needed for how the fiscal policy stance should be evaluated, particularly in the context where very low sovereign interest rates provide more fiscal space.