|Economic growth is projected to recover in 2014-15, after a slowdown last year which left some slack in the economy. The impetus from the petroleum sector will be weaker than in recent years, but non-oil exports will pick up as the global economy improves. Household consumption will also gain strength on the back of growth in disposable income. The remaining slack will gradually diminish.
Monetary policy should, as the central bank foresees, remain accommodative for some time in order to support the recovery. Fiscal policy will be more expansionary, although well within the fiscal guidelines. The housing market seems to have cooled following the tightening of mortgage lending conditions, but property prices and banks’ exposure to high household debt levels should continue to be monitored carefully.
Note: All data definitions based on internationally comparable standards and may differ in specific cases from common national definitions.
Link to eXplorer tool
Link to Excel of selected projections (flash file) and dotStat