The economy is projected to expand as post-earthquake reconstruction drives robust investment and strengthening labour markets support consumption. A post-drought rebound in exports will be tempered by the sluggish global recovery and strong currency. Inflation is expected to rise as earthquake rebuilding stretches resources, pushing up costs.
Monetary policy remains accommodative, but stimulus should be removed soon to anchor inflation near the middle of the target band. Recent macro-prudential tightening measures will help contain financial stability risks, although their effectiveness needs to be monitored and adjustments made if needed. Fiscal consolidation should proceed as planned to reduce public debt before longer-term ageing pressures arise and in light of the large net foreign liabilities position.
Note: All data definitions based on internationally comparable standards and may differ in specific cases from common national definitions.