Netherlands - Economic forecast summary (June 2016)


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Economic growth is projected to remain sound, at around 2%, and broad-based. Private consumption will benefit from fiscal stimulus in 2016 and improving labour market conditions. The strengthening of the housing market and brighter business prospects continue to support investment. Inflation is projected to increase somewhat, but to remain low. The current account surplus will fall further on the back of lower gas exports and firming domestic demand, albeit from a high level.

Public finances are healthy. However, the tax system can be made more efficient, equitable and environmentally-friendly, and efforts for a broad reform should be revived. Further easing the employment protection provided by permanent contracts would reduce labour market duality. Ensuring that the self-employed are sufficiently insured against disability and have adequate pension savings would avoid the risk of future public spending pressures.

Raising productivity, which has been weak since the onset of the crisis, is essential to keep GDP growth on a sustainable and inclusive footing. To this end, more private sector investment in innovation and business capital is needed. Continuing to improve skills, particularly of immigrants and the long-term unemployed, and better matching of skills to jobs would also raise productivity and help to ensure that everyone benefits from higher growth.

>>  Back to Economic Outlook page

>>  Productivity country profile for the Netherlands

Other information

Can we improve real-time estimates of the output gap for policy purposes? (blog + papers)

OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post-mortem (policy paper)

Economic Survey of the Netherlands (survey page)

The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision (main web page with paper)

Structural reforms in a difficult time (blog + paper)

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